Profitable cross-market geopolitics trader

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitics market and the price has already moved sharply in their favor.
Total
$1,223
Trades
1
Win Rate
72%
Wallet P&L
+$323,709
Analysis
- This bettor has won 71% of 105 resolved bets and is up $323k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $640k deployed across 65 markets in 34 events.
- They bought No at 31¢ in a thin market with a wide spread, and No is now around 60¢.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 31¢
Detected June 23, 2026 at 3:58 AM