No breakout buyer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Surfacing as a momentum/geopolitics alert: a modestly profitable wallet bought No into a sharp breakout, though the trader record is not especially strong.
Total
$1,309
Trades
1
Win Rate
54%
Wallet P&L
+$31,958
Analysis
- No has surged sharply, with Yes down 14 percentage points over the last day.
- This wallet is modestly profitable, up $6.3K across 52 resolved bets.
- The buyer paid 74¢ for No, implying confidence Israel will not fully withdraw by the deadline.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 74¢
Detected June 25, 2026 at 3:41 AM