Serial sharp scaling into No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial measured edge made a large, concentrated No bet while repeatedly trading across related events.
Total
$1,605
Trades
1
Win Rate
82%
Wallet P&L
+$189,107
Analysis
- This bettor wins 82% of 847 resolved trades and is up $186,830 lifetime.
- The $1,605 No bet represented 56% of the market’s 24-hour volume, showing meaningful conviction in a thin market.
- This is a serial cross-market trader active across 30 events and 37 markets, with a reported 22% edge over implied odds.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 80¢
Detected August 3, 2026 at 1:34 PM