Three-wallet No conviction cluster
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Three wallets deployed $12.4K toward No, including a new wallet scaling into an established No position as the market fell 21% over the week.
Total
$12,443
Trades
4
Analysis
- Three wallets put $12,443 behind No, with the market already falling from roughly 73% to 52% No over the past week.
- A 12-hour-old wallet bought $5,551 of No and already holds $11,234, signaling substantial fresh conviction despite having no resolved track record.
- Two other participants have extensive histories—1,319 and 1,122 resolved trades—though their high average winning prices make them useful confirmation rather than proven outsized-edge bettors.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 49¢
Detected August 4, 2026 at 5:43 PM