What does the Fed rate hike by September 2026 market measure?

It measures whether the upper bound of the federal funds target rate increases at any point from December 16, 2025 through the completion of the listed September 2026 FOMC meeting.

What causes this Federal Reserve prediction market to resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve announces a qualifying increase to the upper bound of its target federal funds rate during the specified period, including a hike announced because of the listed FOMC meeting.

When does the Fed rate hike market resolve?

The stated resolution date is December 9, 2026. If the listed meeting is delayed beyond the exchange's specified window and no qualifying hike has been announced, the market resolves according to its full resolution rules.

Where can I check the current odds for a Fed rate hike by September 2026?

Check the live Polymarket market page or PolySpotter for the latest Yes and No prices, market activity, and smart-money signals. The current odds were not included in this metadata.

What smart-money activity has appeared in this Fed rate market?

The tracked activity includes profitable macro traders buying No, a three-wallet No conviction cluster, and a four-wallet coordinated Yes shift. PolySpotter recorded one smart-money signal totaling $1,380.

Part of: Fed rate hike by...?

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

This prediction market asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target rate will be increased between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves Yes if a qualifying rate hike is announced during that period and No otherwise; current market odds were not provided in the available metadata.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

14 smart money signals detected, totaling $137,668.

Categories: fomc, Inflation, Fed, Jerome Powell, Finance, Fed Rates, Economy, CPI Release

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market bettor buys Yes

A consistently profitable serial cross-market trader with a 78% win rate is taking a fresh directional position on Yes at roughly 31 cents.

This bettor has won 78% of 986 resolved trades and is up $48,596 lifetime.
The wallet has traded across 43 markets spanning 28 events, suggesting a repeatable forecasting process rather than a one-off bet.
Selling No at 69 cents is equivalent to buying Yes near 31 cents, implying roughly a 3.2x payout if a hike occurs.

$1,380 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Four-wallet No accumulation

Four wallets added nearly $9,700 to No around 50¢, creating a meaningful one-sided position despite limited track-record evidence and existing holdings.

Four wallets bought No for a combined $9,674, with the largest position worth $4,857.
The No buying represented a substantial share of recent market activity and came as Yes odds rose 8% in one day.
One participating bettor has a 91% record across 11 resolved trades, though the sample is still small.

$9,674 on No

Serial 86% winner scaling into Yes

A highly active 86% winner is adding to an existing Yes position, with broader cross-market activity and a linked wallet supporting the trade.

This bettor has won 86% of 1,332 resolved trades and is adding $1,276 to an existing Yes position.
The wallet has traded across 157 events and 244 markets, suggesting substantial experience rather than a one-off wager.
Yes has risen 11% over the past day while this trader continues buying near 54¢.

$1,195 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$1,137 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Three-wallet Yes accumulation

Three wallets are adding to substantial Yes positions as the market rises, creating a meaningful but not exceptionally strong coordinated signal.

Three wallets bought $7,411 of Yes, adding to roughly $160,000 in existing Yes exposure.
The market has risen 14% over the past week, supporting the cluster’s bullish direction.
The signal is moderate rather than elite: two wallets have losing long-term records, while the profitable wallet has only 14 resolved bets.

$7,411 on Yes

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$3,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial 86% winner scaling into Yes

A highly active 86% winner is adding to an existing Yes position, with broader cross-market activity and a linked wallet supporting the trade.

This bettor has won 86% of 1,332 resolved trades and is adding $1,276 to an existing Yes position.
The wallet has traded across 157 events and 244 markets, suggesting substantial experience rather than a one-off wager.
Yes has risen 11% over the past day while this trader continues buying near 54¢.

$1,276 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$4,757 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable macro serial trader

High-conviction No bet from a profitable serial cross-market trader with $486k lifetime profit and large size relative to this market’s daily volume.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k lifetime.
They put $44k on No, equal to about 95% of this market’s 24h volume.
This wallet frequently trades related markets, with activity across 54 events and nearly $4M in tracked cross-market volume.

$5,879 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$6,326 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%