Part of: Fed rate hike by...?
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
This Polymarket market tracks whether the Federal Reserve raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point from December 16, 2025 through the listed FOMC meeting. PolySpotter shows live market pricing when available, with $6,326 in tracked smart money and a recent signal from a profitable macro whale buying NO. The market is scheduled to resolve on December 9, 2026, based on the exchange’s resolution rules.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $101,134.
Categories: fomc, Inflation, Fed, Jerome Powell, Finance, Fed Rates, Economy
Notable Trades
Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.
- This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
- They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
- Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.
$6,326 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.
- This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
- They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
- Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.
$2,210 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.
- This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
- They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
- Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.
$2,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable macro whale buys NO
Profitable serial cross-market trader put $46k on No in a Fed-rate market, a large position relative to liquidity and recent volume despite some early fills now underwater.
- This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved bets and is up about $486k lifetime.
- They put $46k on No, more than half of today’s volume in a market with only $35k liquidity.
- Current No odds near 66¢ are below their roughly 77¢ average entry after large fills at 82–83¢.
$46,299 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable macro serial trader
High-conviction No bet from a profitable serial cross-market trader with $486k lifetime profit and large size relative to this market’s daily volume.
- This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k lifetime.
- They put $44k on No, equal to about 95% of this market’s 24h volume.
- This wallet frequently trades related markets, with activity across 54 events and nearly $4M in tracked cross-market volume.
$44,232 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xe033...40a5 — Yes, $14,000 (40% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $12,353 (70% win rate)
- 0xd905...ad7c — Yes, $11,745 (94% win rate)
- 0xb0fc...ce0b — No, $8,593 (62% win rate)
- 0xe533...ab29 — No, $8,500
- 0x8ffc...9529 — No, $6,039
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $5,864 (70% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $5,745 (47% win rate)
- 0xcaab...24dd — No, $5,308 (78% win rate)
- 0xe7bd...ebce — Yes, $4,394 (94% win rate)
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