Smart Money SignalScore: 2.5

Contrarian bet in a thin market

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.

Total

$1,278

Trades

1

Win Rate

60%

Wallet P&L

+$170,992

Analysis

Copy Trade

Buy No at 11¢

OpenAIGPT-5Big TechAITechsam altmanAI Releases
View all alerts for Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Detected August 6, 2026 at 5:06 PM

Contrarian bet in a thin market | PolySpotter