Part of: GPT-6 released by…?

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make GPT-6 publicly available by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A Yes outcome requires a clearly announced public release, including an open beta or open rolling waitlist; closed or private access does not qualify. Live odds were not included in the supplied market metadata.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,544.

Categories: OpenAI, GPT-5, Big Tech, AI, Tech, sam altman, AI Releases

Notable Trades

Contrarian bet in a thin market

A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.

  • The wallet sold $1,266 of Yes at 89¢, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
  • The trade was more than 8,000% of the market’s flagged 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
  • This trader has 1,365 resolved bets and is up $159,000, though its 58% win rate is not exceptionally strong.

$1,278 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

Contrarian bet in a thin market

A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.

  • The wallet sold $1,266 of Yes at 89¢, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
  • The trade was more than 8,000% of the market’s flagged 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
  • This trader has 1,365 resolved bets and is up $159,000, though its 58% win rate is not exceptionally strong.

$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

Top Holders

  1. 0x588c...1bf4 No, $10,370
  2. 0xb7e1...8c19 No, $7,584
  3. 0xa4bc...026c Yes, $5,200 (55% win rate)
  4. 0x832b...5c91 Yes, $3,940 (80% win rate)
  5. 0xcaab...24dd No, $3,042 (79% win rate)
  6. 0xb121...b73c Yes, $3,000 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x7fd3...e662 No, $2,998 (42% win rate)
  8. 0xfb1b...a11d No, $2,229
  9. 0x122c...fbed Yes, $1,981 (60% win rate)
  10. 0xdf59...deb0 No, $1,789

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Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

128dGPT-6 released by…?$2,544 tracked2 signalsOpenAIGPT-5Big TechAITechsam altmanAI Releases
Yes
66¢
No
35¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
85¢
74¢
62¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

17d ago

$1,278 on No at 11¢

11¢35¢24¢

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

17d ago

$1,266 on No at 11¢

11¢35¢24¢

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