Part of: GPT-6 released by…?
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make GPT-6 publicly available by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A Yes outcome requires a clearly announced public release, including an open beta or open rolling waitlist; closed or private access does not qualify. Live odds were not included in the supplied market metadata.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,544.
Categories: OpenAI, GPT-5, Big Tech, AI, Tech, sam altman, AI Releases
Notable Trades
Contrarian bet in a thin market
A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.
- The wallet sold $1,266 of Yes at 89¢, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
- The trade was more than 8,000% of the market’s flagged 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
- This trader has 1,365 resolved bets and is up $159,000, though its 58% win rate is not exceptionally strong.
$1,278 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Contrarian bet in a thin market
A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.
- The wallet sold $1,266 of Yes at 89¢, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
- The trade was more than 8,000% of the market’s flagged 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
- This trader has 1,365 resolved bets and is up $159,000, though its 58% win rate is not exceptionally strong.
$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Top Holders
- 0x588c...1bf4 — No, $10,370
- 0xb7e1...8c19 — No, $7,584
- 0xa4bc...026c — Yes, $5,200 (55% win rate)
- 0x832b...5c91 — Yes, $3,940 (80% win rate)
- 0xcaab...24dd — No, $3,042 (79% win rate)
- 0xb121...b73c — Yes, $3,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x7fd3...e662 — No, $2,998 (42% win rate)
- 0xfb1b...a11d — No, $2,229
- 0x122c...fbed — Yes, $1,981 (60% win rate)
- 0xdf59...deb0 — No, $1,789
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