Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets is selling Yes, and the market has since fallen 17 percentage points, providing meaningful though not exceptional directional evidence for No.
Total
$3,703
Trades
3
Win Rate
72%
Wallet P&L
+$274,247
Analysis
- This bettor has traded 36 markets across 25 events, with 97 resolved bets and $11,790 in reported profit.
- They sold Yes in two trades totaling $2,321, signaling a view that GPT-6 will not launch publicly by the deadline.
- Yes has fallen 17 percentage points over the past day, although the move means much of the apparent edge may already be reflected.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 36¢
Detected August 7, 2026 at 5:40 PM