Part of: GPT-6 released by…?

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,435.

Categories: OpenAI, GPT-5, Big Tech, AI, Tech, sam altman, AI Releases

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes

A serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets is selling Yes, and the market has since fallen 17 percentage points, providing meaningful though not exceptional directional evidence for No.

This bettor has traded 36 markets across 25 events, with 97 resolved bets and $11,790 in reported profit.
They sold Yes in two trades totaling $2,321, signaling a view that GPT-6 will not launch publicly by the deadline.
Yes has fallen 17 percentage points over the past day, although the move means much of the apparent edge may already be reflected.

$2,411 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes

A serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets is selling Yes, and the market has since fallen 17 percentage points, providing meaningful though not exceptional directional evidence for No.

This bettor has traded 36 markets across 25 events, with 97 resolved bets and $11,790 in reported profit.
They sold Yes in two trades totaling $2,321, signaling a view that GPT-6 will not launch publicly by the deadline.
Yes has fallen 17 percentage points over the past day, although the move means much of the apparent edge may already be reflected.

$3,703 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes

A serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets is selling Yes, and the market has since fallen 17 percentage points, providing meaningful though not exceptional directional evidence for No.

This bettor has traded 36 markets across 25 events, with 97 resolved bets and $11,790 in reported profit.
They sold Yes in two trades totaling $2,321, signaling a view that GPT-6 will not launch publicly by the deadline.
Yes has fallen 17 percentage points over the past day, although the move means much of the apparent edge may already be reflected.

$2,321 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%