Smart Money SignalScore: 4.3

Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

A serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets is selling Yes, and the market has since fallen 17 percentage points, providing meaningful though not exceptional directional evidence for No.

Total

$2,411

Trades

2

Win Rate

72%

Wallet P&L

+$274,247

Analysis

Copy Trade

Buy No at 36¢

OpenAIGPT-5Big TechAITechsam altmanAI Releases
View all alerts for Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Detected August 7, 2026 at 5:48 PM

Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes | PolySpotter