Whale bet in a thin election market
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
A large $2.8K No bet overwhelms this thinly traded election market, though the wallet's mediocre historical win rate limits confidence.
Total
$2,784
Trades
1
Win Rate
55%
Wallet P&L
+$152,053
Analysis
- The $2,785 No position is more than four times the market's reported $685 liquidity, signaling substantial conviction in a quiet market.
- This serial trader has placed $606,522 across 207 markets, but its 57% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
- No was bought at 53¢ and now trades around 37¢, so the market has moved against this position since entry.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 53¢
Detected September 9, 2026 at 7:18 AM