97% win-rate bettor
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A bettor with a 97% win rate made a fresh $5.1k trade that effectively buys Yes at 17¢, a meaningful position despite the weak automated score.
Total
$5,079
Trades
1
Win Rate
97%
Wallet P&L
+$40,781
Analysis
- This bettor wins 97% of their resolved trades, with 36 wins in 37 and nearly $39k profit
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 17¢ by selling No at 83¢, showing a clear bullish view on a low-probability outcome
- The $5.1k order was bigger than the market's recent daily volume, which suggests real conviction rather than routine trading
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 17¢
Detected April 8, 2026 at 4:08 PM