91% win-rate macro bettor

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
A highly proven macro trader with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit is building a cross-market Fed thesis by buying Yes at 42¢ in this no-cuts market.
Total
$1,039
Trades
1
Win Rate
92%
Wallet P&L
+$2,170,302
Analysis
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $1.9M lifetime across 820 bets
- They have traded 161 markets across 124 events, which points to a repeatable cross-market edge rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 42¢ while the market has been moving up, suggesting they see no Fed cuts in 2026 as underpriced
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 42¢
Detected April 10, 2026 at 7:48 PM