Part of: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether the Federal Reserve will make no 25-basis-point rate cuts during 2026. Cuts at scheduled FOMC meetings, emergency cuts, and multiple 25-basis-point cuts delivered at once all count toward the total; the market resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Live odds and smart-money activity can be checked on the market page.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $102,874.

Categories: Business, Fed Rates, Jerome Powell, Economic Policy, Fed, Economy, Finance, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Five-wallet Yes conviction cluster

Five wallets are converging on Yes, including a high-win-rate serial trader and a new repeat bettor, while the market has risen nearly five points over the week.

  • Five wallets put $12,508 behind Yes, with the market rising from 84¢ to 89¢ over the past week.
  • One participating trader wins 88% of 199 resolved bets and has traded across 34 events.
  • A three-day-old repeat bettor is already up $29,239, though that result comes from only three resolved bets.

$12,508 on Yes

Profitable bettor fading favorite

Surface despite the weak alert score because this wallet meets the sharp-wallet override with a 77% resolved win rate and +$38k P&L, and is taking the contrarian side against the 80% favorite.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $38k lifetime.
  • They are fading the 80% favorite, effectively buying that at least one Fed cut happens in 2026 at 19¢.
  • The market has moved 12 points toward no cuts this week, so this looks like a sharp contrarian entry.

$2,822 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Serial macro whale

Large $52k Yes buy from a highly active serial cross-market trader positioning across Fed-cut markets, though the wallet’s lifetime P&L is negative.

  • This bettor has traded 501 markets across 406 events, with a 72% hit rate on resolved bets.
  • They put $52k on no Fed cuts in 2026 and $65k across related Fed markets.
  • The market is already moving their way, with Yes up 6 points today and 8 points this week.

$52,234 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

New repeat whale buying YES

Repeat new wallet has deployed over $40k across flagged bets and is adding to the current momentum on a macro Fed market.

  • This new wallet has already had 16 flagged large bets totaling about $40.7k.
  • The wallet is early but profitable so far, up $12.1k on one resolved win.
  • They bought Yes at 57¢ after the market moved strongly higher over the past week.

$2,298 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

  • LLM evaluation inconclusive

$2,459 | Wallet win rate: 69%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

  • LLM evaluation inconclusive

$6,017 | Wallet win rate: 69%

Sharp macro bettor

A moderately sharp wallet with a positive track record is making a sizable macro bet and has also positioned across related Fed markets, suggesting a broader rates thesis rather than a one-off trade.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and has been profitable so far
  • They put $7.1k on Yes at 41¢, implying they see no 2026 cuts as clearly underpriced
  • They also traded another related Fed market with $21.9k total across the event, showing a broader rates view

$7,117 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Winning macro bettor

A moderately sharp wallet with a 75% hit rate is making a fresh macro thesis bet across multiple Fed-cut markets, which is notable even though the edge is not elite.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is betting across multiple Fed markets with a $20.7k total thesis
  • They bought at 41¢ while this outcome now trades around 40-41¢, suggesting a clear view that no 2026 cuts are still underpriced
  • The market is liquid enough that a $4.7k buy is real conviction, not just noise, and the price is up 4.3 points today

$4,672 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Fed thesis from winning bettor

A modest but still notable sharp wallet with a 75% hit rate is adding a directional macro view across multiple related Fed markets at 35¢.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $3.3k overall
  • They have put $17k across 2 related Fed markets, pointing to a broader macro view rather than a one-off punt
  • Bought Yes at 35¢ while the market now sits at 36¢, a low-priced position on a major policy market

$2,227 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

91% macro winner

A serial macro trader with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit is adding a fresh 40¢ Yes position across multiple related Fed markets, making this worth following despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $1.9M lifetime across 821 bets
  • They trade Fed-related markets repeatedly across 126 events, suggesting a real macro process rather than a one-off punt
  • Bought Yes at 40¢, a relatively cheap entry in a liquid market with tight spreads

$1,030 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $925,326
  2. 0x3a8a...7699 Yes, $593,512 (63% win rate)
  3. 0xaf45...ec7d Yes, $262,621 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x0dcc...5a1f No, $145,622
  5. 0xc6d0...4bad Yes, $67,418
  6. 0xdd9c...31a0 Yes, $60,422 (32% win rate)
  7. 0x269c...9017 No, $60,000 (86% win rate)
  8. 0x9d0b...f0cb No, $40,050
  9. 0xa309...4cf2 Yes, $39,283 (25% win rate)
  10. 0xf4f3...330d Yes, $37,335 (54% win rate)

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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

128dHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?$102,874 tracked12 signalsBusinessFed RatesJerome PowellEconomic PolicyFedEconomyFinanceRewards 200, 4.5, 50 DeprecRewards 200, 4.5, 50
Yes
86¢
No
14¢

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Price History — “Yes
88¢
86¢
83¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

24d ago

$12,508 on Yes at 89¢

89¢86¢3¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

61d ago

$2,822 on No at 19¢

19¢14¢5¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

79d ago

$52,234 on Yes at 75¢

75¢86¢11¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

114d ago

$2,298 on Yes at 57¢

57¢86¢29¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

116d ago

$2,459

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

117d ago

$6,017

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

121d ago

$7,117 on Yes at 41¢

41¢86¢45¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

122d ago

$4,672 on Yes at 41¢

41¢86¢45¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

123d ago

$2,227 on Yes at 35¢

35¢86¢51¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

134d ago

$1,030 on Yes at 40¢

40¢86¢46¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

135d ago

$1,039 on Yes at 42¢

42¢86¢44¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

138d ago

$8,451 on No at 60¢

60¢14¢46¢

Related Theses