Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether the Federal Reserve will make no 25-basis-point rate cuts at all during 2026. The market counts every 25 bps of easing, including emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings and any move at the December 2026 meeting, and resolves after December 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $8,451 in smart money activity on this market.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $8,451.
Categories: Business, Fed Rates, Jerome Powell, Economic Policy, Fed, Economy, Finance
Notable Trades
3-wallet macro cluster
Three wallets aligned on No in a major macro market, including two with strong early win rates, and their buying helped push No from roughly 60¢ to 67¢.
- Three wallets lined up on No for $8.5k total, a coordinated directional bet in a big Fed market
- Two of the wallets win 75% and 79% of resolved bets, giving the cluster some track-record support
- The best entry was around 60¢ on No, and the market has already moved up to 67¢ after the buys
$8,451 on No
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $351,397
- 0xaf45...ec7d — Yes, $116,676 (75% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Yes, $70,811 (38% win rate)
- 0xe033...40a5 — Yes, $60,127
- 0x269c...9017 — No, $60,000 (85% win rate)
- 0xdd9c...31a0 — Yes, $56,255
- 0x7cde...b97d — No, $52,835 (95% win rate)
- 0x9e7e...3e1d — Yes, $40,000
- 0xa46c...8f85 — Yes, $35,136
- 0x7b02...4991 — Yes, $23,216 (52% win rate)
