Sharp bettor buying longshot
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
A proven sharp wallet with a 76% win rate and strong edge is taking a fresh $2k position on a liquid Elon tweet-count market at 25¢.
Total
$2,050
Trades
1
Win Rate
19%
Wallet P&L
+$116,195
Analysis
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $164k overall
- They bought Yes at 25¢, a cheap entry that implies they see the true odds as meaningfully higher
- The market is active and liquid, so this looks more like a deliberate value bet than random whale flow
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 25¢
Detected April 11, 2026 at 10:02 AM