Sharp bettor buys No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 7 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
A profitable sharp bettor with a strong edge and 76% win rate bought No at 62¢ in a moderately active market that has already moved sharply higher.
Total
$4,032
Trades
1
Win Rate
19%
Wallet P&L
+$116,195
Analysis
- This bettor wins 76% of their trades and is up about $164k across 45 resolved positions
- They bought No at 62¢, a price that suggests they think this outcome is still undervalued
- The market is active and already up 27 points over the week, so this looks like a deliberate view rather than random flow
Copy Trade
Buy No at 62¢
Detected April 11, 2026 at 10:30 AM