Profitable macro bettor in thin market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
A very active and profitable cross-market trader made an outsized trade in a thin geopolitical market, effectively buying Yes around 19¢ before a recent price rise.
Total
$2,426
Trades
1
Win Rate
61%
Wallet P&L
+$211,716
Analysis
- This bettor has 621 resolved trades and is up $165k overall, showing a real history of profitable betting.
- The trade was huge for this market's activity, equal to 873% of the prior 24-hour volume in a market with a wide 14-point spread.
- Selling No at 81¢ is effectively buying Yes at 19¢, a cheap entry in a geopolitical market that has already moved up to 22%.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 19¢
Detected April 11, 2026 at 8:04 PM