Profitable sharp betting No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 11 12:00 PM ET to April 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
A profitable sharp wallet with a 76% win rate sold Yes in this Elon tweet-range market, which translates to a buyable No position around 49¢.
Total
$1,488
Trades
1
Win Rate
19%
Wallet P&L
+$116,195
Analysis
- This bettor wins 76% of their trades and is up about $167k across 45 resolved markets
- They sold Yes at 51¢, which is the same as buying No at 49¢
- The market already moved 41 points in a day, so a sharp trader fading it here stands out
Copy Trade
Buy No at 49¢
Detected April 12, 2026 at 5:23 PM