92% win-rate contrarian
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 7 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
A proven 92% win-rate serial cross-market trader is fading a 91% favorite here, which is notable despite the modest size because the wallet has a long profitable history across 186 markets.
Total
$1,467
Trades
1
Win Rate
92%
Wallet P&L
+$7,332
Analysis
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 186 markets and has a long record of event-driven trading
- They sold No at 88¢, which converts to buying Yes at 12¢ — a clear contrarian bet against a 91% market price
- The bet is small relative to market volume, but the wallet’s track record makes this position worth watching
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 12¢
Detected April 14, 2026 at 7:42 AM