Alaska Senate Election Winner
12 signals across 2 markets · $70,043 tracked · resolves Nov 4, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, centered on whether Mary Peltola wins the race. PolySpotter is monitoring smart money activity across the market, including a recent profitable-wallet signal in a thinly traded market.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 18-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A high-severity cluster signal links 18 wallets to the same funder, and this established bettor is adding to an existing Yes position, though the trade is near current market odds.
$3,550Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 7.2 - Profitable serial trader with linked-wallet support
A highly active, lifetime-profitable trader made a sizable bearish position, with a second wallet sharing the same funder adding corroboration.
$6,250Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 6.9 - Three-wallet cluster adding to Yes
Three wallets added $6,480 to Yes positions, including a historically profitable bettor, making the shared political-market conviction worth surfacing despite mixed track records.
$6,480Score: 5.7 - Proven high-volume sharp bettor
A highly profitable bettor with 3,494 resolved positions and an 88% win rate is making a fresh $1,205 bet on Yes.
$1,205Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 5.6 - Serial sharp bettor backs No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is selling Yes at 51%, implying a meaningful position on No in a moderately thin market.
$1,030Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly active, substantially profitable trader placed a $5.1k No bet and has a long history across election markets, though the entry matches current odds closely.
$5,111Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 4.7 - Proven sharp backing Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 79% wins across 269 resolved bets is taking a $3,776 position equivalent to buying Yes at 71¢.
$3,776Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.7 - Profitable serial trader adding Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 271 resolved trades is adding to an existing Yes position, supported by a long-running cross-market trading pattern.
$1,440Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.7 - Profitable serial trader sells Yes
A historically profitable, highly active cross-market trader made a sizable bearish position, selling about $36.6K of Yes shares despite a modest win rate relative to average winning odds.
$36,588Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.3 - Profitable serial trader adds to No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding materially to an existing No position in an extremely quiet market, though the track record does not show a strong odds-adjusted edge.
$1,386Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 3.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe899b5…0899$36,588 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$6,250 · 1 market · 1 alert · 62% wins
- 0xf2f6af…5817$5,111 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$3,776 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$3,593 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xca62d6…fbfa$3,550 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0xd24b95…ef76$1,440 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x27f738…44b0$1,205 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0x23d81b…0288$1,030 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0x77a634…3606$1,019 · 1 market · 1 alert · 60% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for the Alaska Senate election?
The event reflects prediction-market pricing for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race, currently focused on whether Mary Peltola wins. Odds can move as polling, candidate news, fundraising, endorsements, and trader activity change.
Who is smart money betting on in the Alaska Senate market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,019 in smart money activity across this event, with one recent signal flagged as a profitable wallet trading in a thin market. That does not guarantee an outcome, but it can highlight where experienced traders are taking positions.
What does a thin market signal mean?
A thin market has relatively low liquidity, so even smaller trades can move the displayed odds. Smart money activity in thin markets can be notable, but it should be interpreted carefully because prices may be more volatile.
When does the Alaska Senate election market resolve?
The market is tied to the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. It resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, including any runoffs if applicable.
What outcomes are traded in this event?
This event currently includes a child market asking whether Mary Peltola will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026. If the race is not confirmed by the stated deadline, the event rules indicate it may resolve to “Other.”