Part of: Alaska Senate Election Winner
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Mary Peltola will win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any required runoffs. The race is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026, once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC call the same candidate; current odds are not provided in the market metadata.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $58,682.
Categories: Alaska Midterm, Senate Elections, US Election, Midterms, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, United States, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms
Notable Trades
Three-wallet cluster adding to Yes
Three wallets added $6,480 to Yes positions, including a historically profitable bettor, making the shared political-market conviction worth surfacing despite mixed track records.
- Three wallets bought Yes within minutes, adding $6,480 to positions they already held.
- One bettor in the group is up about $99,000 across 153 resolved bets, with a 64% win rate.
- Yes trades were placed around 74–75¢ in a liquid market currently priced at 74%.
$6,480 on Yes
Profitable serial trader adding Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 271 resolved trades is adding to an existing Yes position, supported by a long-running cross-market trading pattern.
- This bettor has won 79% of 271 resolved trades and is up $135,928.
- They are adding $1,440 to an existing Yes position after investing $6,033 in it.
- The wallet has traded across 33 events and 38 markets, with $291,580 in total trading volume.
$1,440 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
18-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A high-severity cluster signal links 18 wallets to the same funder, and this established bettor is adding to an existing Yes position, though the trade is near current market odds.
- 18 wallets share a funder, and this alert adds another $3,550 to the cluster’s Yes position.
- The bettor is adding to an existing Yes position; their 63% win rate is not strong evidence of an edge at this price.
$3,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Proven sharp backing Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 79% wins across 269 resolved bets is taking a $3,776 position equivalent to buying Yes at 71¢.
- This bettor has won 213 of 269 resolved bets and is up over $5.1 million.
- The $3,776 trade is a sell of No, equivalent to buying Yes at 71¢.
- They trade across 228 events, suggesting a sustained track record rather than a one-off bet.
$3,776 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Proven high-volume sharp bettor
A highly profitable bettor with 3,494 resolved positions and an 88% win rate is making a fresh $1,205 bet on Yes.
- This bettor has won 88% of 3,494 resolved positions and is up $6.46 million.
- They placed a fresh $1,205 bet on Yes at 70¢ in a liquid market.
- The wallet has traded across 1,712 events, showing an extensive history beyond this market.
$1,205 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable serial trader sells Yes
A historically profitable, highly active cross-market trader made a sizable bearish position, selling about $36.6K of Yes shares despite a modest win rate relative to average winning odds.
- This trader is up $665K across 289 resolved bets and has traded across 53 events.
- They sold about $36.6K of Yes at 73¢, a sizable position against Peltola winning.
- The equivalent copy trade is No near 27¢; the market’s Yes price has also fallen 4% in a day.
$36,588 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial trader adds to No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding materially to an existing No position in an extremely quiet market, though the track record does not show a strong odds-adjusted edge.
- This trader is up nearly $300,000 across 1,176 resolved bets and has traded 98 events.
- The $2,208 purchase is over 40 times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling notable conviction in a thin market.
- The trader is scaling into an existing No position at 47¢ rather than taking a routine profit.
$1,386 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial sharp bettor backs No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is selling Yes at 51%, implying a meaningful position on No in a moderately thin market.
- This bettor has won 82% of 215 resolved trades and earned over $1.08 million.
- The wallet has traded across 64 events and 90 markets, showing a broad, repeatable betting record.
- Selling Yes at 51¢ is equivalent to buying No at 49¢ in this binary market, with a $1,030 position in a relatively thin market.
$1,030 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable serial trader adds to No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding materially to an existing No position in an extremely quiet market, though the track record does not show a strong odds-adjusted edge.
- This trader is up nearly $300,000 across 1,176 resolved bets and has traded 98 events.
- The $2,208 purchase is over 40 times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling notable conviction in a thin market.
- The trader is scaling into an existing No position at 47¢ rather than taking a routine profit.
$2,208 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable wallet on thin market
A profitable but not yet proven wallet bought No for about 8x the market’s recent daily volume on a thin Alaska Senate market.
- This bettor is up $9.4K lifetime, though their track record is still small at 9 resolved bets.
- The $1.0K No buy was nearly 8x recent 24h volume, a large move for this quiet market.
- Entry at 51¢ implies they see Peltola losing as better than a coin flip.
$1,019 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $162,814
- 0xf30f...fa3e — No, $155,691
- 0xf031...c80c — No, $95,231 (89% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Yes, $94,640 (86% win rate)
- 0xdc41...dd7e — No, $50,250 (46% win rate)
- 0xc301...66aa — Yes, $36,382 (71% win rate)
- 0xac42...7c6c — No, $28,177 (50% win rate)
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $24,999 (75% win rate)
- 0x7523...4c4c — Yes, $24,603 (50% win rate)
- 0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $24,355 (40% win rate)
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