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Event

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? (Higher Strikes)

1 signal across 1 market · $1,350 tracked · resolves Oct 5, 2026

This Brazil 2026 election prediction market tracks whether Lula receives between 44% and 47% of valid votes in the first round. PolySpotter has tracked $1,350 in smart-money activity and one signal from a cross-market bettor with a reported 92% win rate.

Markets (1)

  1. Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1 signal · $1,350 tracked

Top trades across all markets

  1. Serial cross-market bettor, 92% wins

    A repeat cross-market trader with a large resolved sample placed a substantial Yes bet in a thin market, though their high win rate is only modestly above their average winning odds and the position is underwater.

    $1,350Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 4.3

Top wallets in this event

  1. 0xeb490d…693e$1,350 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins

More on this event

Cross-market thesis
Lula wins 44%-47% first round

FAQs

What are the Polymarket odds on Lula’s vote share?

The event covers the outcome of whether Lula receives 44%–47% of valid votes in Brazil’s first round. Check the market page for current odds, which can change over time.

What vote-share outcomes are traded in this event?

This event currently has one child market: whether Lula wins between 44% and 47% of valid votes in the first round.

What is smart money doing in the Lula vote-share market?

PolySpotter has tracked one smart-money signal and $1,350 in smart-money activity for the event. The alert identifies a serial cross-market bettor with a reported 92% win rate; that history does not guarantee a future result.

When does the Brazil election market resolve?

The event is scheduled to resolve by October 5, 2026, at 02:59 UTC, based on Lula’s share of valid votes in the October 4 first round.