Cap FDV above ___ one day after launch?
4 signals across 3 markets · $7,756 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2028
This event tracks whether Cap’s governance token will reach a fully diluted valuation above $50M one day after launch. Traders are pricing the outcome based on expected token supply, launch price, liquidity, and early market demand, with PolySpotter flagging smart money activity such as linked wallets buying into a thin crypto market.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp linked wallet buying NO
Sharp 81% winning wallet with linked-wallet support made a bet larger than the market’s 24h volume on a quiet token FDV market.
$3,438Wallet win rate: 41%Score: 13.6 - Linked wallets buying thin crypto market
High-scoring alert driven by a repeat-flagged linked wallet cluster buying Yes on a thin crypto FDV market with recent upward momentum.
$2,055Wallet win rate: 41%Score: 9.6 - 96% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a thin, wide-spread token FDV market.
$1,042Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 1.5 - 84% winner buying YES
Despite a weak alert score, this is worth surfacing because a highly profitable wallet with an 84% record bought Yes on a niche crypto launch valuation market.
$1,220Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x16351b…5624$5,493 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 41% wins
- 0x8a9777…593d$1,220 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0x2f28c1…ba03$1,042 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Cap’s FDV is above $50M one day after launch?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance that Cap’s governance token has a fully diluted valuation above $50M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch.
What does this Cap FDV prediction market cover?
This event currently covers the $50M FDV threshold for Cap’s governance token. It resolves Yes if total token supply multiplied by token price is greater than $50M one day after launch, and No otherwise.
What is smart money doing in the Cap FDV market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,055 in smart money activity across this event, including an alert that linked wallets were buying in a thin crypto market. That can signal coordinated interest, but thin liquidity can also make prices move quickly.
When does the Cap FDV market resolve?
The market resolves based on Cap’s token FDV at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. If the token is not publicly transferable and tradable, it may not count as launched under the market rules.
How is Cap’s FDV calculated for this market?
FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price at the resolution time. The market compares that figure against the $50M threshold.