Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?
2 signals across 2 markets · $5,233 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether the first Claude Mythos model to appear on the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard debuts with a score of at least 1540. Traders are betting on the model’s initial coding benchmark performance, with PolySpotter flagging activity from a profitable AI-market sharp among the smart money signals.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable AI-market sharp
A proven profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate bought No on a niche Claude leaderboard market while also positioning across a related market.
$3,514Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly active, profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes at 90¢ on a market already moving sharply upward.
$1,719Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5999eb…ae94$3,514 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0x9aeb53…2729$1,719 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
FAQs
What are the Claude Mythos Coding Arena debut odds on Polymarket?
This event’s market prices the chance that the first Claude Mythos model added to the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard debuts with a score of at least 1540. The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are assessing Anthropic’s next coding-model performance.
What outcome is being traded in this Claude Mythos prediction market?
The event currently centers on whether the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena leaderboard will have a score of 1540 or higher at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it first appears.
Is smart money betting on the Claude Mythos debut?
PolySpotter is tracking about $3,514 in smart money across this event and has flagged one recent signal, including activity from a profitable AI-market sharp.
When does the Claude Mythos Arena market resolve?
Resolution depends on when a qualifying Claude model with “Mythos” in its official name first appears on the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard. The relevant score is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, with the event listed to resolve no later than December 31, 2026.