Part of: Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
This prediction market asks whether the first newly added Claude model with “Mythos” in its official name will debut on the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard with a score of at least 1530. It resolves based on the model’s score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date after it first appears on the leaderboard. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,719 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Claude Mythos model added to the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the Coding leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard whose official name includes “Mythos” will qualify. A model whose official name does not include “Mythos” may also qualify if Anthropic officially and unambiguously identifies it as a “Mythos-class” model or substantially similar Mythos variant. Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Opus, or another non-Mythos variant will not qualify unless Anthropic separately provides such official Mythos identification. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,719.
Categories: anthropic, AI, Claude Mythos, Debut, Tech, Claude, Coding
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly active, profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes at 90¢ on a market already moving sharply upward.
- This bettor has won 68% of 1,434 resolved trades and is up about $86k lifetime.
- They are a seasoned cross-market trader, active across 288 events and over $1.0M in volume.
- The market has moved strongly toward Yes, up 21 points in the past day, and they entered at 90¢.
$1,719 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xb89f...1c44 — No, $7,441 (47% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — No, $6,000 (45% win rate)
- 0x5999...ae94 — Yes, $5,100 (78% win rate)
- 0x2fdb...8ffc — Yes, $4,980 (54% win rate)
- 0x09e2...29de — Yes, $2,631
- 0x7b75...3fd1 — No, $2,004 (51% win rate)
- 0x9aeb...2729 — Yes, $1,878 (68% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — No, $1,353
- 0x0482...6b0a — No, $1,288 (32% win rate)
- 0xa6b7...d5f3 — No, $1,280 (55% win rate)
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