How high will inflation get in 2026?
8 signals across 2 markets · $16,046 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on how high U.S. inflation could get in 2026, focused on whether CPI rises by more than 4.5% over any 12-month period ending in 2026. PolySpotter is tracking smart money activity around this inflation thesis, including a recent signal tied to a broader 4-market macro view.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Cross-market inflation bear
A single wallet is building a broader anti-inflation thesis across four related markets, moving a thin order book despite a mixed overall track record.
$1,097Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 8.5 - Cross-market inflation bear
A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.
$2,142Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 6.0 - Cross-market inflation bear
A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.
$1,053Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 6.0 - 4-market inflation thesis
Wallet is building a sustained cross-market thesis against >4.5% inflation in 2026, with $21k across four related markets and recent price momentum supporting the direction.
$1,084Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 6.0 - Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a broader inflation thesis across five related markets, with this No bet large relative to recent market activity.
$2,801Wallet win rate: 51%Score: 5.0 - Cross-market inflation bear
A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.
$2,215Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 3.4 - Cross-market inflation bear
A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.
$4,529Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 3.4 - 83% winner buying No
Sharp wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making even a modest buy on No worth surfacing.
$1,125Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa0d390…5b5e$12,120 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 52% wins
- 0x0ffcad…8236$2,801 · 1 market · 1 alert · 51% wins
- 0x3c6909…c149$1,125 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for inflation in 2026?
This event shows prediction-market pricing for whether U.S. CPI inflation will reach more than 4.5% in 2026. The live odds reflect how traders are pricing the risk of a renewed inflation spike.
What outcome is being traded in this inflation market?
The market resolves Yes if the Consumer Price Index increases by more than 4.5% over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026, based on official BLS CPI reports.
Is smart money betting on higher inflation in 2026?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,084 in smart money activity across this event, including one recent signal described as a 4-market inflation thesis. That suggests at least one tracked trader is expressing a broader view on inflation-related markets.
When will the 2026 inflation market resolve?
Resolution is based on Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI releases for months in 2026. The event is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, after the relevant CPI data is available.
Why do traders watch this inflation prediction market?
Inflation markets can reflect expectations about the economy, interest rates, energy prices, fiscal policy, and Fed decisions. A market on CPI topping 4.5% gives a real-time read on perceived tail risk for 2026 inflation.