Part of: How high will inflation get in 2026?

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,084.

Categories: Inflation, Macro Indicators, Economy, Politics

Notable Trades

4-market inflation thesis

Wallet is building a sustained cross-market thesis against >4.5% inflation in 2026, with $21k across four related markets and recent price momentum supporting the direction.

  • This wallet has placed $21k across 4 related inflation markets, pointing to a broader macro thesis.
  • The latest trade bought No at 36¢ in a quiet market with only $4.6k traded in 24 hours.
  • Market momentum supports the move: Yes odds are down 17.5 points over the past week.

$1,084 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0x3b01...2026 Yes, $7,378 (33% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $4,479 (47% win rate)
  3. 0xa0d3...5b5e No, $3,730 (68% win rate)
  4. 0x0ffc...8236 No, $2,309 (52% win rate)
  5. 0xe7a3...e60a Yes, $2,001
  6. 0x2ed8...93d4 No, $1,436 (58% win rate)
  7. 0xf27d...e6d3 Yes, $1,341 (24% win rate)
  8. 0x4d82...a5e9 Yes, $1,020 (43% win rate)
  9. 0x1d5f...634d No, $500 (73% win rate)
  10. 0xcf59...0a34 Yes, $500

Related Theses

Inflation lands between 3.5% and 4%

Covers 4 related markets

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

217dHow high will inflation get in 2026?$1,084 tracked1 signalInflationMacro IndicatorsEconomyPolitics
Yes
63¢
No
38¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Price History — “Yes
82¢
71¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

3h ago

$1,084 on No at 36¢

36¢38¢2¢

Related Theses