Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory
9 signals across 1 market · $32,509 tracked · resolves Apr 12, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks the 2026 Hungary parliamentary election popular-vote margin, focused on whether Tisza wins the national party-list vote by 9% or more. PolySpotter has tracked $32,509 in smart-money activity across 9 signals, including repeated new-wallet whale buying and profitable-wallet activity around the outcome.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable new wallet repeats
A 7-day-old wallet with repeat large bets, early profits, and five prior flags just bought No with meaningful size into an active politics market.
$3,141Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 6.0 - New wallet election whale
A brand-new wallet deployed $15.6k into a Hungarian election market and helped drive a sharp 20-point move, which is notable despite having no track record yet.
$15,623Wallet win rate: 48%Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet buyer
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed size into Polymarket and just bought this fast-rising Hungary election market below current price, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring.
$1,012Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet whale
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across the platform and just added another sizable Yes position into a fast-rising Hungary election market, suggesting real conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
$1,868Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet whale
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and just bought nearly $2.9k of Yes before a sharp move higher in a liquid politics market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching.
$2,880Score: 5.5 - Profitable new wallet adds size
A 9-day-old wallet with repeated large bets, early profits, and a perfect small sample record just added fresh size on a major political market.
$1,359Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 5.0 - New whale repeating buys
A brand-new wallet has already made repeated four-figure bets totaling over $10k on this election market and is buying into rising momentum at 47¢.
$2,807Score: 5.0 - New wallet repeat whale
A brand-new wallet has already put over $13k into repeated bets and just bought Yes at 48¢ in an active 2026 Hungary election market, which is notable early conviction despite no track record yet.
$2,230Wallet win rate: 48%Score: 4.5 - 87% win-rate cross-market bettor
A high-performing serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate is taking the Yes side here via a sell of No, making this worth surfacing despite the modest size.
$1,590Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7c6cf2…1f86$17,853 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 48% wins
- 0x261b93…2cb8$8,567 · 1 market · 4 alerts
- 0xc4fd6e…fe19$4,500 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 95% wins
- 0x784fee…5df9$1,590 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
FAQs
What are the Hungary election margin odds on Polymarket?
This event reflects market pricing for the margin between the top two parties or coalitions in Hungary’s 2026 national party-list vote, with the active market focused on whether Tisza wins by 9% or more.
What outcome is being traded in this Hungary election prediction market?
Traders are betting on whether Tisza will win the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election national list vote by at least 9 percentage points, measured against the second-place party or coalition.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has flagged $32,509 in tracked smart-money activity across 9 signals, including repeated new-wallet whale entries and profitable new-wallet buying, suggesting concentrated interest in this margin scenario.
When does the Hungary election margin market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on the official results of Hungary’s parliamentary election, currently listed for April 12, 2026, with the margin calculated from national party-list vote totals.
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference in national party-list vote share between the top two parties or coalitions. For this market, the key threshold is whether Tisza’s lead reaches 9 percentage points or more.