Israel military action against Beirut by...?
4 signals across 2 markets · $9,022 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Israel carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Greater Beirut by the specified deadline. PolySpotter is monitoring the Yes/No prediction market, with $1,166 in tracked smart money and a recent signal showing a serial cross-market trader adding to No.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial trader scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader with 199 resolved bets added $4.6K to an existing No position in a thin market, with the market subsequently moving from 65% to 75% No.
$4,572Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.5 - Serial cross-market trader adds to No
A serial cross-market trader with 196 resolved bets is adding significantly to an existing No position in a relatively thin geopolitical market, though the historical win rate does not show a clear price-adjusted edge.
$1,166Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.3 - 91% winner adds to No
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding to an existing No position, though the edge is modest relative to the 86% entry price.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.0 - 91% winner adding to No
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 91% win rate added $2,184 to an existing No position in a thin market, though the edge is modest at the 89% entry price.
$2,184Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 0.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6bab66…0fe5$5,738 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xeb490d…693e$2,184 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$1,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
FAQs
What is the Israel military action against Beirut prediction market?
The market asks whether Israel will initiate a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Greater Beirut by the listed deadline. Traders can take positions on Yes or No.
What are the current odds for Israeli military action against Beirut?
The live Yes and No prices represent the market’s implied probabilities and can change as traders buy or sell. Check the PolySpotter event page for the latest Polymarket odds.
What is smart money doing in this Beirut prediction market?
PolySpotter tracks $1,166 in smart money across the event and one signal. The latest alert reports that a serial cross-market trader added to No.
When does the Israel-Beirut market resolve?
The child market asks whether the action occurs by July 31. The event metadata lists a resolution time of August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time.
What counts as a qualifying military action?
A qualifying action must be initiated by Israel and directly impact Greater Beirut. It includes an air strike—such as bombs, air-to-surface missiles, or air-launched drones—or a surface-to-surface missile strike.