Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
8 signals across 7 markets · $90,198 tracked · resolves Oct 1, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Israel initiates a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Lebanon on September 14, Israel Daylight Time. PolySpotter is monitoring a paper-thin market after a new whale movement, with $16,980 in tracked smart money across the event.
Markets (7)
- Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?2 signals · $21,776 tracked
- Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?1 signal · $18,319 tracked
- Israel military action against Lebanon on September 14?1 signal · $16,980 tracked
- Israel military action against Lebanon on September 12?1 signal · $13,926 tracked
- Israel military action against Lebanon on September 28?1 signal · $9,689 tracked
- Israel military action against Lebanon on September 27?1 signal · $5,402 tracked
- Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16?1 signal · $4,105 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- New whale scaling into No
A brand-new wallet placed roughly $20,000 into No across an exceptionally illiquid market, creating a notable high-conviction signal despite having no proven track record.
$20,154Score: 6.7 - New whale moves a paper-thin market
A brand-new wallet deployed nearly $17,000 into an extremely illiquid market and drove a sharp price move, though its opposing trades and lack of history reduce copyability.
$16,980Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 6.2 - New whale betting heavily on No
A brand-new wallet made a very large No position in an exceptionally illiquid market, creating a notable high-conviction trade despite having no proven track record.
$13,926Score: 5.7 - New wallet scaling into Yes
A brand-new repeat wallet is making a concentrated Yes bet in an extremely thin market, though it has no proven track record yet.
$1,622Score: 4.8 - New wallet scaling into No
A brand-new repeat wallet has committed nearly $10,000 to No in an extremely thin, wide-spread market, though it lacks a proven track record.
$9,689Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 4.4 - New whale bets No in thin market
A brand-new wallet placed a very large No bet in an essentially empty market, creating a notable high-conviction trade despite having no proven track record.
$5,402Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - New whale bets heavily on No
A brand-new wallet placed a highly concentrated $4.1K No bet in a nearly inactive market, though there is no track record confirming the thesis.
$4,105Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - New whale makes concentrated No bet
A brand-new wallet deployed $18.3K on No at 88¢ in an extremely illiquid market, signaling unusually strong conviction despite having no proven track record.
$18,319Score: 3.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0xb7ec7b…7f77$21,776 · 1 market · 2 alerts
- 0x51416f…fd2f$18,319 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x1b3047…af05$16,980 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x5741fc…9c5c$15,091 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xbc6b6e…4d0d$13,926 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x8c1cda…a80e$4,105 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
FAQs
What are the Israel-Lebanon September 14 prediction market odds?
The event trades Yes and No outcomes on whether Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on September 14. Odds can change as traders place new positions and market liquidity shifts.
What action qualifies for a Yes outcome?
A Yes outcome requires an Israeli-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Lebanon, based on the market’s stated resolution criteria.
What is smart money doing in this Polymarket event?
PolySpotter has tracked $16,980 in smart money across the event and one signal so far. The latest alert reports a new whale movement in a paper-thin market.
When does this Israel-Lebanon prediction market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by October 1, 2026 at 03:59 UTC, using the specified September 14 date and Israel Daylight Time for the outcome.