Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
4 signals across 2 markets · $13,672 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2027
This Polymarket event tracks whether Israel and Hamas reach an official Phase II ceasefire agreement by the listed deadline of July 31. The Yes/No market reflects expectations around further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and future security and governance arrangements in Gaza. PolySpotter has recorded one smart-money signal, with a profitable serial trader scaling into No.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 92% winner adding to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position despite the market moving sharply toward Yes.
$3,662Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.7 - 92% winner adding to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position despite the market moving sharply toward Yes.
$1,955Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.7 - Profitable serial trader scales into No
A highly active profitable trader added $3,178 to an already substantial No position at 42¢, representing over half the market's recent volume.
$3,179Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.4 - 92% winner adds to No conviction
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding $4,876 to an existing No position amid a sharp market move.
$4,876Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 0.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0x85a858…9281$10,493 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$3,179 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Phase II odds?
The live Yes and No probabilities are shown on the event page and change as traders update their positions. This event has one child market asking whether an official Phase II agreement is reached by July 31.
What does this Israel-Hamas ceasefire prediction market resolve on?
It resolves Yes if an official agreement for the second phase of the ceasefire is reached by the market’s stated deadline; otherwise, it resolves No under the exchange’s rules.
What is smart money doing in this event?
PolySpotter has tracked one smart-money signal across the event. The latest alert reports that a profitable serial trader scaled into No.
What issues would Phase II address?
The proposed second phase is expected to cover further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
When does this prediction market resolve?
The child market is titled “Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?” The event hub lists a resolution date of December 31, 2026, subject to the exchange’s official resolution criteria.