Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?
21 signals across 1 market · $178,113 tracked
This event tracks Polymarket trading on whether the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire announced on April 16, 2026 is officially extended by April 26. PolySpotter is monitoring $178K+ in smart money activity, including recent No-side whale pressure and multiple clustered geopolitical betting signals.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- New whale pressing No
A 4-hour-old wallet repeatedly deployed $25k into No on a major geopolitics market during a 21.7x volume spike, signaling fresh high-conviction positioning worth watching.
$25,000Score: 9.6 - 4-wallet ceasefire cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes around 40¢, including a repeat new whale and several high-volume cross-market traders, creating a meaningful coordinated bet despite mixed wallet quality.
$11,095Score: 9.0 - 3-wallet geopolitical NO cluster
Three wallets with strong cross-market history are aligned against a ceasefire extension, including one bettor with an 83% win rate, making this coordinated geopolitical flow worth surfacing.
$9,577Score: 8.1 - 3-wallet geopolitical NO cluster
Three wallets with strong cross-market history, including one with a 98% win rate, aligned on buying No around 61-62¢ in a major geopolitics market with solid liquidity and recent price momentum.
$6,645Score: 8.1 - 5-wallet ceasefire cluster
Five wallets with meaningful prior activity and one very large profitable bettor clustered into Yes around 46-50¢ on a geopolitically news-sensitive market, creating a coordinated directional signal worth watching.
$12,340Score: 7.8 - Repeat new wallet whale
A very new wallet that has already fired 12 large-bet alerts put $19.1k into Yes on a major geopolitical market during a 21x volume spike, signaling fresh high-conviction positioning despite limited proof of skill so far.
$19,104Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 7.3 - Profitable new wallet pressing No
A 7-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed sizable bets across multiple markets and is already profitable, and here it is buying No into a fast-falling geopolitics market after a sharp repricing.
$1,463Wallet win rate: 29%Score: 6.0 - New whale pressing No
A very active new wallet has already put nearly $70k into flagged trades and just made a $20k bet against a ceasefire extension after the market collapsed, suggesting strong conviction rather than routine flow.
$20,000Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet whale
A 5-day-old wallet has already made 11 large flagged bets and just scaled $6.3k into No as the market moved from 55¢ to 65¢, showing repeat high-conviction behavior in a major geopolitical market.
$6,261Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 5.5 - Repeat new wallet whale
A repeat new-wallet bettor has already placed nearly $45k in flagged trades and just put $5k into No on a major geopolitics market after a sharp price drop, suggesting continued conviction rather than routine flow.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0xab6537…5cac$67,000 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x5cd0d5…d6aa$30,200 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 75% wins
- 0x766e1f…21cd$25,000 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x35bbba…009b$6,988 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x0a2605…1851$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
- 0x68c24b…1711$1,687 · 1 market · 1 alert · 55% wins
- 0xf67f72…31cf$1,572 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0xc6b711…e2ff$1,463 · 1 market · 1 alert · 29% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$1,324 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$1,222 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What is the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire extension market about?
This prediction market asks whether Israel and Hezbollah will officially and mutually extend the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026 by 11:59 PM ET on April 26, 2026. It can also include a new agreement scheduled to take effect before or at the initial ceasefire’s expiration.
What are the Polymarket odds for the ceasefire being extended?
The event page shows the live Polymarket odds for the Yes and No outcomes, reflecting how traders are pricing the chance of an official Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire extension by April 26, 2026.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has tracked over $178,000 in smart money activity across 21 signals. Recent alerts include a new whale pressing No, plus several multi-wallet clusters leaning into geopolitical No-side positioning.
Why do whale and wallet-cluster alerts matter here?
Large or coordinated wallet activity can signal that experienced Polymarket traders are reacting to news, diplomatic signals, or perceived mispricing. In this event, repeated ceasefire and geopolitical clusters suggest the market has attracted concentrated attention from smart money wallets.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on whether an official, publicly announced, mutually agreed extension is in place by 11:59 PM ET on April 26, 2026. If no qualifying extension or new agreement is announced by then, it resolves to No.