Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
26 signals across 3 markets · $109,983 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether Israel and Hezbollah will agree to a permanent peace deal by the stated deadline. Traders are pricing the likelihood of a lasting end to hostilities, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity, including a recent signal from a profitable sharp in a thin market.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Coordinated sharp Yes buying
Four wallets bought $20.4k of Yes into a 62x volume spike, including a profitable 75% lifetime bettor and serial cross-market trader.
$20,446Score: 11.8 - Profitable serial thesis trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is taking a contrarian Yes position despite the market moving against them.
$1,630Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 6.0 - 82% winner backs NO
Sharp wallet with an 82% win rate and $754k lifetime profit is effectively buying No on a high-volume geopolitics market.
$1,571Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - Repeat new wallet buying NO
Repeat new wallet is making another sizable geopolitics bet, buying No despite recent Yes momentum and showing early profit on limited resolved history.
$3,079Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5 - Profitable cluster buying Yes
Three wallets are effectively buying Yes by selling No, including two profitable wallets and a 79% winner, amid a sharp daily move toward Yes.
$7,012Score: 5.1 - Repeat new wallet buying NO
Repeat new wallet is making another sizable geopolitics bet, buying No despite recent Yes momentum and showing early profit on limited resolved history.
$3,786Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.0 - 80% winner buying Yes
A profitable 80% winner is effectively buying Yes at 28¢ while also positioning across related markets, with Yes momentum up sharply this week.
$2,840Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - 86% winner buys No
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and over $1M lifetime profit bought $5k of No at 88¢.
$4,861Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.0 - 80% winner buying Yes
A profitable 80% winner is effectively buying Yes at 28¢ while also positioning across related markets, with Yes momentum up sharply this week.
$2,033Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - 12-0 bettor buys No
Sharp wallet with a perfect 12-0 resolved record is buying No on a geopolitical market despite only moderate trade size.
$1,700Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x51ff0f…4818$16,070 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x267d37…0c13$13,287 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xbf961d…9942$10,239 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xfa2117…1438$9,861 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xe4df6f…39d9$6,865 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xa6e6d6…d5b8$5,951 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x9cdac2…1397$5,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
- 0xbf4d20…33ed$3,879 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x2ece9a…acf2$3,471 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0x0e3455…9cd8$3,001 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of an Israel-Hezbollah permanent peace deal?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance that Israel and Hezbollah reach a qualifying permanent peace deal by the deadline. Because this is a thin market, odds can move quickly when new information or larger trades appear.
What does this Israel-Hezbollah prediction market resolve on?
The market resolves “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal that clearly signals a lasting end to military hostilities by the specified deadline. Temporary ceasefires or ambiguous agreements generally would not qualify.
Is smart money betting on this peace deal market?
PolySpotter has tracked about $11,197 in smart money activity across this event, with one recent signal highlighting a profitable sharp trading in a thin market.
Why does thin market activity matter here?
In a thin market, even relatively modest trades can shift prices. A profitable sharp’s position may be worth watching, but it should be interpreted alongside liquidity, news flow, and the market’s resolution rules.
When does the Israel-Hezbollah peace deal market resolve?
This event is tied to whether a permanent peace deal is reached by the market’s deadline, listed as June 15, 2026 for the child market. Resolution depends on the official criteria and available evidence at that time.