Maduro Prison Time?
3 signals across 2 markets · $11,008 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2028
This event tracks Polymarket odds around Nicolás Maduro’s potential prison sentence following the U.S. indictment described in the market rules. The active outcome is whether Maduro will be sentenced to no prison time, with PolySpotter monitoring smart-money positioning across the event. Recent activity shows a sharp wallet fading “Yes,” suggesting some informed traders are betting against the no-prison-time outcome.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Large bettor fading Yes breakout
A $1,304 Yes sale was large relative to the market’s quiet 24-hour volume and contrasts with a detected Yes-price breakout, though the wallet has no clear win-rate edge.
$1,304Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 4.4 - Whale adding to Maduro sentence bet
The wallet added nearly $8,000 to an existing Yes position amid a reported sharp volume spike, though its small track record does not establish a reliable edge.
$7,919Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 3.8 - Sharp wallet fading Yes
A proven high-win-rate wallet sold Yes at 31¢, effectively betting No around 69¢, and the market has already moved in their favor despite only modest alert strength.
$1,785Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7d7ef1…4e04$7,919 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0xb98059…62e6$1,785 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0x187fbd…5fee$1,304 · 1 market · 1 alert · 40% wins
FAQs
What are the Maduro prison time odds on Polymarket?
The live odds reflect how traders price the chance that Nicolás Maduro is sentenced to no prison time. Because prediction-market prices move with buying and selling, check the event page for the latest implied probability.
What does “no prison time” mean in this market?
The child market asks whether Maduro will be sentenced to no prison time. It is focused on the sentencing outcome described in the market rules, not simply whether he is indicted or convicted.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,785 in smart-money activity across this event. The latest alert says a sharp wallet is fading “Yes,” meaning that trader is taking a position against the no-prison-time side.
When does the Maduro prison time market resolve?
The event is listed to resolve by December 31, 2027, according to the market’s resolution deadline. Final settlement depends on the official sentencing outcome and the event’s rules.