Next Claude Opus released by...?
4 signals across 2 markets · $13,346 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Anthropic makes its next officially named Claude Opus model available to the general public by July 24, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking activity from a new profitable AI-event trader; the market excludes Sonnet, Haiku, and other models not explicitly named Opus.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Repeat new wallet scaling into Yes
A recently created, repeatedly flagged wallet is adding to a sizable Yes position while also positioning across three related markets, though its resolved track record is limited.
$1,394Wallet win rate: 33%Score: 4.4 - Profitable serial trader scaling into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with 187 resolved bets added to an existing Yes position in a thin market, despite recent price weakness.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 4.3 - Repeat new wallet scaling into Yes
A recently created, repeatedly flagged wallet is adding to a sizable Yes position while also positioning across three related markets, though its resolved track record is limited.
$2,936Wallet win rate: 33%Score: 3.8 - New profitable AI-event trader
A repeat-flagged 16-day-old wallet with positive early P&L is actively trading the Claude release market, taking profit at 90¢ and re-entering Yes at 77¢ amid a sharp 1-day move.
$7,016Wallet win rate: 33%Score: 3.8
Top wallets in this event
- 0x34893b…7935$11,346 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 33% wins
- 0x0c955e…10f5$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
FAQs
What are the Claude Opus release odds?
The event tracks the Polymarket market asking whether Anthropic releases its next Claude Opus model by July 24, 2026. Current Yes and No odds are shown on the live market page and may change as traders place bets.
What does this Claude Opus prediction market cover?
It covers the release of Anthropic’s next model officially named Claude Opus, including future Opus variants. Models named Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or other non-Opus names do not qualify unless Anthropic officially names them Opus.
What is smart money doing on the Claude Opus market?
PolySpotter has tracked one smart money signal across this event, including activity from a new profitable AI-event trader. The alert identifies notable trader activity but does not by itself guarantee an outcome.
When does the Claude Opus market resolve?
The market resolves based on whether the qualifying model is publicly available by July 24, 2026, in Eastern Time. If it is not publicly available by then, the market resolves No.