Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
10 signals across 2 markets · $90,630 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether Gustavo Petro will be the next listed leader to permanently leave office before 2027. PolySpotter has tracked $3,276 in smart money activity, including a recent signal that a proven winner bought “No,” indicating skepticism that Petro will be the resolving leader.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp cluster buying No
Three profitable, serial cross-market bettors bought $6.6k of No, led by wallets with strong long-term records and recent momentum toward No.
$6,644Score: 15.1 - Coordinated Yes surge
High-conviction coordinated Yes buying on a political market, backed by a 142x volume spike, sharp price move, and one highly successful wallet joining the flow.
$38,801Score: 14.9 - Sharp-led one-sided cluster
Three wallets bought the same Yes direction into a major price/volume surge, including one bettor with an 83% resolved win rate across 1,328 bets.
$10,930Score: 11.9 - Elite sharp flips to No
Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 82% win rate, $722k profit, and a long cross-market track record now buying No after previously closing Yes.
$1,076Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - Elite sharp flips to No
Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 82% win rate, $722k profit, and a long cross-market track record now buying No after previously closing Yes.
$1,549Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - Profitable bettor flips to YES
A profitable, high-volume politics bettor flipped from No to a $9.4k Yes position during a 222x volume spike and sharp upward price move.
$9,370Wallet win rate: 57%Score: 5.8 - Momentum buyer into surge
A $10.5k Yes buy is notable because it lands amid a 45x volume spike and a sharp 28-point one-day move higher on a politics market.
$10,468Wallet win rate: 46%Score: 5.2 - Proven winner buys No
A highly experienced profitable wallet is effectively buying No on Petro being the next leader out, despite only a weak low-activity size signal.
$3,276Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 1.0 - Profitable contrarian buyer
A profitable politics bettor bought $7.1k of No into a major market repricing, creating a contrarian signal after Starmer-Yes odds surged sharply.
$7,107Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 1.0 - Profitable contrarian buyer
A profitable politics bettor bought $7.1k of No into a major market repricing, creating a contrarian signal after Starmer-Yes odds surged sharply.
$1,408Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7e35a2…1a6c$10,468 · 1 market · 1 alert · 46% wins
- 0x17ed7d…c087$9,370 · 1 market · 1 alert · 57% wins
- 0xdbf73a…fbea$8,515 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 55% wins
- 0xeec50e…b6fe$3,276 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$2,626 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Gustavo Petro leaves office before 2027?
The live Polymarket odds are shown on the event page and update as traders buy and sell shares. This hub focuses on the event outcome: whether Gustavo Petro is the next listed leader to permanently cease holding office before 2027.
What is smart money doing on this Petro market?
PolySpotter has tracked $3,276 in smart money across this event. The notable recent alert is that a proven winner bought “No,” suggesting that trader is betting Petro will not be the next leader out before 2027.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
The market resolves based on the first listed individual who permanently ceases to occupy their listed office. A resignation announcement, scheduled future departure, or temporary transfer of power does not by itself qualify.
When does the Gustavo Petro before-2027 market end?
The event is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, unless the qualifying office departure happens earlier under the market rules.
Is this page for one market or the whole event?
This is the event hub for the related Polymarket outcome being traded here: whether Gustavo Petro will be the next leader out before 2027. It combines the market context with PolySpotter smart money alerts.