Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
10 signals across 1 market · $69,359 tracked · resolves Sep 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to a 7-day average of at least 60 transit calls by September 30, 2026. PolySpotter is monitoring the market’s smart money activity, including an elite serial trader pivoting to No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Elite serial trader pivots to No
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.
$3,610Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Elite serial trader pivots to No
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.
$1,685Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Elite serial trader pivots to No
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.
$4,221Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Elite serial trader pivots to No
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.
$1,510Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - 94% win-rate trader adds to No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,000 to an existing No position.
$20,000Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 5.4 - 94% win-rate trader adds to No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,000 to an existing No position.
$15,323Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 5.4 - Elite serial trader pivots to No
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.
$1,895Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Three-wallet cluster scaling into Yes
Three wallets added nearly $12,000 to Yes during a 55x volume spike, reinforcing an already-established coordinated position despite modest individual track records.
$11,954Score: 4.9 - Sharp bettor backs unlikely Yes
A highly experienced bettor with a 79% win rate and $475,346 profit is taking the contrarian Yes side at 14% by selling No.
$1,162Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.7 - 92% winner scales into No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $8,000 to an existing No position.
$8,000Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf55927…f462$35,323 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 91% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$12,921 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$8,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0x0a2605…1851$1,162 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
FAQs
What are the Strait of Hormuz traffic prediction-market odds?
The market trades Yes and No outcomes on whether IMF Portwatch records a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship arrivals on any date through September 30, 2026. Current odds are shown on the live Polymarket market.
What does the Strait of Hormuz Polymarket market measure?
It measures reported transit calls for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Only ships reported by IMF Portwatch count toward the resolution.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,510 in smart money across the event and one signal. The latest alert reports that an elite serial trader pivoted to No.
When will the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?
The market can resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data. If the threshold is never reached, it resolves No after the September 30, 2026 deadline.