US strike on Colombia by...?
19 signals across 1 market · $488,631 tracked · resolves Jan 31, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian soil is announced or credibly reported by the deadline. The only listed outcome is the December 31 market, with PolySpotter currently tracking $19,440 in smart money activity and a recent whale buying NO.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- New whale buying NO
A new wallet repeatedly put about $45k into No on a quiet geopolitical market, driving a massive volume spike despite having no resolved track record.
$45,080Score: 10.5 - New whale buying NO
A new repeat-flagged wallet put $19.4k into No on a relatively quiet geopolitical market, creating a large volume spike with fresh concentrated conviction.
$19,440Score: 9.5 - New whale buying NO
A new wallet made a large, repeated $45k buy into No during a 69x volume spike on a geopolitically plausible market, though it has no resolved track record yet.
$45,441Score: 7.8 - Repeat new whale buying No
Repeat new wallet is making another sizable No bet amid a major volume spike, but there is no resolved track record yet.
$3,321Score: 7.6 - Repeat new whale buying NO
A repeat-flagged new wallet put $29.4k into No during a 43.6x volume spike on a geopolitically plausible market.
$29,403Score: 7.6 - Repeat new whale on No
A repeat-flagged new wallet is making a large $22.4k No bet amid a major volume spike, though it has no resolved track record yet.
$22,400Score: 7.6 - New whale buying NO
A new wallet is repeatedly making large NO bets on a geopolitical market during a 38.5x volume spike, suggesting conviction despite no resolved track record.
$16,038Score: 7.6 - New whale buying NO
A repeat-flagged new wallet put nearly $15k into No at 81¢ during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record.
$14,945Score: 7.6 - New whale buying NO
New wallet has repeatedly deployed large size and is adding $57.7k into No during a major volume spike, though it has no resolved track record yet.
$57,700Score: 7.2 - New wallet scaling No
A repeat-flagged new wallet split $7.4k into six No buys during a major volume spike, suggesting fresh conviction against a US strike on Colombia.
$7,436Score: 7.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8e9638…83f2$186,520 · 1 market · 5 alerts
- 0x3f73a3…d597$128,304 · 1 market · 5 alerts
- 0x99172e…dfbe$112,490 · 1 market · 4 alerts
- 0x2c36af…1abc$36,531 · 1 market · 3 alerts
- 0x0f7b8e…c98e$24,786 · 1 market · 2 alerts
FAQs
What are the odds of a US strike on Colombia by December 31?
The live odds are set by Polymarket traders buying and selling YES or NO shares on whether a qualifying US-initiated aerial strike in Colombia occurs by the deadline. PolySpotter tracks those market prices along with notable smart money activity.
What is the smart money doing on this Colombia strike market?
PolySpotter has tracked $19,440 in smart money across this event. The latest signal shows a whale buying NO, suggesting at least one large tracked trader is positioning against a strike occurring by December 31.
What counts as a US strike on Colombia for this market?
A qualifying strike generally means a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian soil, announced or credibly reported by the listed deadline. The market description includes aerial bombs, drones, missiles, FPV and ATGM strikes, and cruise or ballistic missiles launched by US operatives.
When does the US strike on Colombia market resolve?
The event is listed to resolve by January 31, 2026, based on whether the underlying December 31 deadline condition was met. If no qualifying strike is announced or credibly reported by then, the market resolves to NO.
Is this a prediction about US-Colombia relations?
It is not a broad forecast of diplomatic relations. This Polymarket event is specifically about whether a defined US-initiated aerial strike occurs on Colombian soil by the market deadline.