Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
2 signals across 2 markets · $3,761 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Russia will enter specified Ukrainian cities by December 31, 2026, based on the ISW map. The active market currently focuses on Sumy, with PolySpotter monitoring prediction-market odds, liquidity, and smart money activity. A recent alert flagged a profitable sharp in a thin market, making order flow and liquidity especially important to watch.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought No on a thin long-dated Ukraine war market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,388Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 4.0 - Profitable sharp in thin market
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate made a large Yes bet in a very quiet geopolitical market, though the price has since moved sharply against the entry.
$2,374Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8b92f7…1761$2,374 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x9aeb53…2729$1,388 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Russia enters Sumy by December 31, 2026?
The live Polymarket price represents the market-implied odds that Russia enters Sumy by the resolution deadline. PolySpotter tracks those odds along with smart money activity so you can see whether sharp traders are moving the market.
What does “Russia enters Sumy” mean for this market?
The market resolves to Yes if any part of Sumy is shown as captured on the ISW map under the specified qualifying layer by December 31, 2026. If that condition is not met, it resolves to No.
What is the smart money doing in this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,374 in smart money activity across this event and one recent signal. The latest alert described a profitable sharp entering a thin market, which can matter because smaller trades may have an outsized impact when liquidity is low.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on the status of the ISW map by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, following the market’s stated resolution criteria.
Why should I watch liquidity in this market?
The recent alert noted a thin market, meaning there may be limited liquidity on one or both sides. In thin markets, odds can move quickly, spreads may be wider, and sharp trader activity can be more informative than usual.