Part of: Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture any territory within the city of Dopropillia, Ukraine, as shown on the ISW map, by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,090 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market, including a recent alert noting an 81% winner buying a quiet market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (48.46978658204883° N, 37.08593384222816° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,090.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map, Ukraine

Notable Trades

81% winner buying quiet market

Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% historical win rate bought No on a quiet Ukraine war market, with the trade exceeding the prior 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $48k lifetime.
  • The $1.1k No buy was larger than the market’s entire prior 24h volume.
  • Entry at 53¢ suggests they see No as mispriced despite current odds near even.

$1,090 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0xcf9e...518e — No, $17,787 (85% win rate)
  2. 0xc93c...52f1 — Yes, $7,341 (51% win rate)
  3. 0x8f69...7df1 — Yes, $6,347 (68% win rate)
  4. 0xb48b...04eb — No, $6,344 (59% win rate)
  5. 0x5d91...3578 — No, $5,936 (60% win rate)
  6. 0x5739...5f1a — Yes, $4,854 (55% win rate)
  7. 0xef95...88c0 — Yes, $4,011
  8. 0x0a58...4508 — Yes, $3,489
  9. 0xea0d...5057 — No, $2,405
  10. 0x2889...fc69 — Yes, $2,079

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

164dWhich cities will Russia enter by December 31?$1,090 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsUkraine MapUkraine
Yes
57¢
No
43¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (48.46978658204883° N, 37.08593384222816° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes”
63¢
57¢
50¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

49d ago

$1,090 on No at 53¢

53¢→43¢↓10¢