What is the Russia–Dobropillia prediction market?

It is a Polymarket market on whether Russia will capture any territory in the specified city of Dobropillia, referred to as “Dopropillia” in the market title, by December 31, 2026.

When does the Dobropillia market resolve?

The market resolves at 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026.

What determines a Yes outcome?

The market resolves Yes if the ISW map shows Russia capturing any part of the specified city or settlement by the deadline.

Which Dobropillia is covered by this market?

Only the Dobropillia at approximately 48.47° N, 37.08° E, bordering Sviatohorivka and Hannivka, is considered. Other Ukrainian towns or cities with the same name do not count.

Where can I check the current odds and market activity?

The current Yes/No prices, trading activity, and smart-money signals are available on the Polymarket market page and through PolySpotter’s tracking tools.

Part of: Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture any territory in the specified Ukrainian city of Dobropillia (listed in the market title as Dopropillia) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves using the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, and only the designated Dobropillia near Sviatohorivka and Hannivka counts; live Yes/No odds are displayed on the market page.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,790.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map, Ukraine

Notable Trades

85% winner buys NO

A proven profitable wallet with an 85% resolved win rate is buying No at 49¢ and has related positioning across the same event.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $60.7K lifetime.
They bought No at 49¢, implying they think the market is underpricing that side.
The wallet has $3.6K positioned across related markets in the same event.

$3,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

81% winner buying quiet market

Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% historical win rate bought No on a quiet Ukraine war market, with the trade exceeding the prior 24h volume.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $48k lifetime.
The $1.1k No buy was larger than the market’s entire prior 24h volume.
Entry at 53¢ suggests they see No as mispriced despite current odds near even.

$1,090 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

0xc23e...6499 — Outcome 79618988, $116,563
0xcf9e...518e — Outcome 79618988, $14,426 (85% win rate)
0x1cc2...5003 — Outcome 79618988, $7,780 (58% win rate)
0xaa9f...0df3 — Outcome 79618988, $7,428
0x9648...6825 — Outcome 79618988, $7,353 (70% win rate)
0xad82...1075 — Outcome 79618988, $4,150 (44% win rate)
0xb441...c7fb — Outcome 79618988, $3,660
0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 79618988, $3,312
0xa5e6...b4b8 — Outcome 79618988, $2,500
0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 79618988, $2,197

Related Theses

Russia won’t capture either city

Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

97dWhich cities will Russia enter by December 31?$4,790 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsUkraine MapUkraine

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (48.46978658204883° N, 37.08593384222816° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes”

99¢

91¢

83¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades