Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
3 signals across 1 market · $5,620 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether any Canadian provincial government officially schedules a referendum on leaving Canada before the end of 2026. Traders are pricing the chance of a qualifying independence or secession vote being scheduled, while PolySpotter highlights smart-money activity such as a recent sharp funded-cluster bettor signal.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp funded-cluster bettor
A proven profitable wallet from a 10-wallet funded cluster is selling Yes, which translates into a copyable buy on No at 27¢ in a reasonably liquid political market.
$2,049Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 9.0 - 98% winner flips to No
Sharp wallet with a 42/43 resolved record is taking a contrarian No position despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,300Wallet win rate: 98%Score: 4.0 - Proven bettor buying Yes
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has a long profitable record and made a relatively large Yes buy in a quiet market.
$2,271Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$2,271 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0x820012…df37$2,049 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x7afe2e…9449$1,300 · 1 market · 1 alert · 98% wins
FAQs
What are the odds a province schedules a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
The live Polymarket price reflects the market-implied probability that any Canadian province officially schedules a qualifying secession referendum by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside notable smart-money signals.
What counts as a qualifying referendum in this market?
A referendum can qualify if it concerns a province’s potential secession from Canada, including a vote on independence, a framework for independence, or establishing independence. It may be binding or non-binding, as long as a provincial government officially schedules it before the deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this Canada referendum market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,049 in smart-money activity across this event, including a recent alert tied to a sharp funded-cluster bettor. That signal suggests at least one sophisticated wallet cluster has taken a notable position.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying provincial referendum is officially scheduled by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no province schedules one by then, the market resolves to No.
Which provinces could matter for this prediction market?
Any Canadian province could trigger the market if its provincial government officially schedules a qualifying referendum on leaving Canada. The market is not limited to one province, so traders may watch political developments across Canada.