Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?
8 signals across 2 markets · $19,841 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2028
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Arc will officially launch a publicly transferable and tradable governance token by the market deadline. The active child market focuses on a September 30, 2026 deadline, with PolySpotter currently tracking $1,867 in smart-money activity and one recent signal: a new wallet entering a thin market.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- New wallet hits thin market
A 2-day-old repeat wallet took a large No position in a very thin crypto token-launch market, spending nearly 10x the market's 24h volume despite no resolved track record.
$2,248Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 9.5 - New wallet hits thin market
A 2-day-old repeat wallet took a large No position in a very thin crypto token-launch market, spending nearly 10x the market's 24h volume despite no resolved track record.
$1,644Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 8.5 - New wallet hits thin market
A 2-day-old repeat wallet took a large No position in a very thin crypto token-launch market, spending nearly 10x the market's 24h volume despite no resolved track record.
$1,867Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 8.5 - New wallet hits thin market
A 2-day-old repeat wallet took a large No position in a very thin crypto token-launch market, spending nearly 10x the market's 24h volume despite no resolved track record.
$1,628Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 8.0 - New wallet hits thin market
A 2-day-old repeat wallet took a large No position in a very thin crypto token-launch market, spending nearly 10x the market's 24h volume despite no resolved track record.
$8,116Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 8.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the No side on a thin Arc token-launch market with recent odds moving downward.
$1,120Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large relative bet is buying No on a thin crypto-token launch market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,732Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large relative bet is buying No on a thin crypto-token launch market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,484Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5cad06…2bdd$15,505 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xd3316c…733c$3,217 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x20d919…5490$1,120 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Arc launches a token by September 30, 2026?
The live Polymarket price reflects the crowd’s current implied probability that Arc launches a transferable, tradable governance token by September 30, 2026. Check the event page for the latest odds, liquidity, and price movement.
What counts as an Arc token launch for this market?
An announcement alone does not count. The token must be officially launched and actively, publicly transferable and tradable before the deadline, with Arc’s own information as the primary resolution source.
What is the smart money doing on the Arc token market?
PolySpotter currently tracks $1,867 in smart-money activity across this event. The latest alert noted that a new wallet hit a thin market, which can be meaningful but should be interpreted carefully because low-liquidity markets can move sharply.
When does the Arc token launch market resolve?
The listed child market resolves based on whether Arc launches a qualifying token by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. If no qualifying launch happens by then, it resolves to “No.”},{