Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
4 signals across 2 markets · $8,624 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by December 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome around any qualifying retirement announcement, with PolySpotter currently tracking $1,014 in smart-money activity and one signal from a profitable contrarian political bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable contrarian political bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a huge Yes price spike, though the position is currently against market momentum.
$1,014Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 6.6 - 90% sharp buys No
A highly profitable 90% lifetime bettor bought No on Alito retiring, and the position has already moved from 64¢ to about 72¢.
$2,259Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - 90% sharp buys No
A highly profitable 90% lifetime bettor bought No on Alito retiring, and the position has already moved from 64¢ to about 72¢.
$3,561Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - 90% sharp buys No
A highly profitable 90% lifetime bettor bought No on Alito retiring, and the position has already moved from 64¢ to about 72¢.
$1,789Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$7,610 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x5e73af…6697$1,014 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Samuel Alito announces his retirement by 2026?
The live Polymarket odds reflect traders’ current probability for whether Justice Samuel Alito will make a qualifying retirement announcement by the market deadline. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart-money activity so you can see how informed wallets are positioning.
What counts as a “Yes” outcome for the Alito retirement market?
The market resolves Yes if Samuel Alito announces he will retire from the Supreme Court by the specified cutoff. The retirement can be immediate, at the end of a term, or at a future date, as long as the announcement qualifies under the market rules.
Who is betting on Samuel Alito retirement odds?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,014 in smart-money activity on this event, including a recent signal tied to a profitable contrarian political bettor. That does not guarantee the outcome, but it can show where experienced prediction-market traders are taking a view.
When does the Samuel Alito retirement market resolve?
This event is tied to whether Alito announces retirement by December 31, 2026. If no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline, the market is expected to resolve No under the stated rules.