Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
39 signals across 4 markets · $86,118 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This event tracks the Polymarket prediction market on whether IMF Portwatch reports at least 80 Strait of Hormuz ship transit calls on any single day by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter shows the live odds and smart money activity, including a recent signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (4)
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?25 signals · $51,244 tracked
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?5 signals · $17,030 tracked
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?8 signals · $15,860 tracked
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?1 signal · $1,984 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp trader fading rally
Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
$1,719Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 10.5 - 4-wallet contrarian Yes flow
Four wallets are making a coordinated contrarian Yes bet on a geopolitics-adjacent shipping market, with one positive-P&L bettor and cross-market positioning adding some signal despite mixed wallet quality.
$4,912Score: 10.0 - 82% winner shipping thesis
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes as part of a broader Hormuz shipping thesis.
$1,642Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 10.0 - 82% winner shipping thesis
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes as part of a broader Hormuz shipping thesis.
$2,402Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 10.0 - 82% winner shipping thesis
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes as part of a broader Hormuz shipping thesis.
$1,353Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 10.0 - 82% winner shipping thesis
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes as part of a broader Hormuz shipping thesis.
$1,639Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 10.0 - 82% winner shipping thesis
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes as part of a broader Hormuz shipping thesis.
$1,125Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 9.0 - 82% winner buying high-conviction Yes
A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes at 90¢ despite already high odds.
$1,984Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 9.0 - 82% winner cross-market buyer
Sharp high-volume trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $775k profit is buying Yes while also positioning across related markets.
$1,352Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 9.0 - 82% winner cross-market buyer
Sharp high-volume trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $775k profit is buying Yes while also positioning across related markets.
$1,206Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 9.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$16,887 · 4 markets · 11 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x2b670a…b814$15,595 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x7bc141…8db4$9,370 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x879247…4174$6,306 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 84% wins
- 0x49e940…8f85$6,143 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 98% wins
- 0x3c4c03…dd95$5,205 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0xbf961d…9942$4,817 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$3,650 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$3,010 · 1 market · 1 alert · 62% wins
- 0xe8c582…7a13$1,614 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in one day by June 30?
The odds come from the live Polymarket market for this event. They reflect traders’ current expectations that IMF Portwatch will finalize at least one daily Strait of Hormuz transit count at 80 or higher before the deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this Strait of Hormuz market?
PolySpotter has tracked $3,010 in smart money activity across this event, with one recent signal tied to a profitable serial cross-market bettor. That suggests at least one historically successful trader has taken a notable position.
How does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market resolve?
The market resolves “Yes” if IMF Portwatch’s finalized daily “Arrivals of Ships” number for the Strait of Hormuz is 80 or more on any date through June 30, 2026. If no finalized daily count reaches that level, it resolves “No.”
Which ships count for the 80-ship threshold?
The market uses IMF Portwatch transit calls, including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch do not count.
Why are traders watching Strait of Hormuz ship transit odds?
The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global energy and trade, so shipping activity can be sensitive to geopolitical risk, oil-market concerns, and regional tensions involving Iran and the broader Gulf.