Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
11 signals across 1 market · $149,642 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 13-wallet geopolitics cluster
A member of a 13-wallet funded cluster with a decent 76% hit rate is buying No in a major geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a random single-wallet bet.
$1,335Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 10.0 - Sharp trader buys regime fall
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 77% win rate just made a fresh $25k binary bet equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢ during an extreme volume spike.
$24,988Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 8.9 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
Four wallets sold No together, which translates to buying Yes around 19-20¢, and the cluster includes a serial cross-market trader with a strong 77% hit rate plus another wallet winning 85% of resolved bets.
$16,451Score: 8.5 - 88% winner flips to Yes
A high-performing wallet with an 88% win rate and nearly $1M in profit is making a fresh directional bet by selling No, which translates to buying Yes around 21¢ in a major geopolitical market.
$26,016Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 6.0 - New whale repeating big bets
A 2-day-old wallet has already deployed over $220k across repeated large bets and just added a $25.4k position into a major geopolitical market, suggesting strong conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
$25,427Score: 5.5 - Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Six wallets put nearly $37k on No in the same market, and the group includes one very strong bettor plus several profitable high-volume traders re-entering around 65-67¢.
$36,808Score: 5.1 - 86% winner buying YES
A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on Iranian regime fall at 21¢, though the sizing is modest for this liquid market.
$2,370Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.0 - Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$2,246Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial geopolitical bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long track record is buying No, though the bet is modest relative to this liquid market.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$26,016 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x9ba9de…3ce9$25,427 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x433723…8882$24,988 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$10,246 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xa9e64c…1dc2$6,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0xaf3909…3101$2,370 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x200181…bd4b$1,335 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins