Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
33 signals across 1 market · $357,603 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran’s ruling regime will collapse, be overthrown, or otherwise cease governing before 2027. PolySpotter follows the prediction-market odds alongside smart money signals, including sharp traders, whale activity, and clustered buying around the “Yes” outcome.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 13-wallet geopolitics cluster
A member of a 13-wallet funded cluster with a decent 76% hit rate is buying No in a major geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a random single-wallet bet.
$1,335Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 10.0 - Sharp trader buys regime fall
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 77% win rate just made a fresh $25k binary bet equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢ during an extreme volume spike.
$24,988Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 8.9 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
Four wallets sold No together, which translates to buying Yes around 19-20¢, and the cluster includes a serial cross-market trader with a strong 77% hit rate plus another wallet winning 85% of resolved bets.
$16,451Score: 8.5 - Known 3-wallet cluster
A previously seen three-wallet funded cluster is taking effective Yes exposure at 18¢, though the position is modest relative to total market liquidity.
$1,640Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 6.6 - 88% winner flips to Yes
A high-performing wallet with an 88% win rate and nearly $1M in profit is making a fresh directional bet by selling No, which translates to buying Yes around 21¢ in a major geopolitical market.
$26,016Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 6.0 - Proven $3M sharp flips No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and nearly $3M lifetime profit bought No after previously closing a Yes position.
$2,728Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 6.0 - 86% serial cross-market trader
Surface because this is a proven serial cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L re-entering No on a major politics market.
$2,580Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 5.7 - New whale repeating big bets
A 2-day-old wallet has already deployed over $220k across repeated large bets and just added a $25.4k position into a major geopolitical market, suggesting strong conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
$25,427Score: 5.5 - Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Six wallets put nearly $37k on No in the same market, and the group includes one very strong bettor plus several profitable high-volume traders re-entering around 65-67¢.
$36,808Score: 5.1 - 85% sharp buys YES
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate is effectively buying Yes on Iranian regime fall at 18¢.
$4,100Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xc6587b…b784$68,227 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xa9e64c…1dc2$44,528 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xe52c0a…6924$37,748 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0x433723…8882$27,716 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 75% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$26,016 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x9ba9de…3ce9$25,427 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xe899b5…0899$18,057 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xc25427…3f73$11,555 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$10,246 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 71% wins
- 0x71edff…d338$4,400 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
FAQs
What are the odds the Iranian regime falls before 2027?
The live Polymarket price reflects the market-implied odds that Iran’s current regime falls before the end of 2026. PolySpotter tracks those odds and highlights when notable traders or wallet clusters are moving the market.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran regime market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show multiple notable signals, including a 13-wallet geopolitics cluster, sharp traders buying “Yes,” an 88% winner flipping to “Yes,” and a whale repeating large bets.
What outcomes are being traded in this event?
This event centers on whether the Iranian regime falls before 2027. Traders are effectively pricing “Yes” for regime collapse or overthrow before the deadline, versus “No” if the current ruling structures remain in power through the resolution date.
When does the Iran regime fall market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether the regime has fallen by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on broad reporting consensus that core Islamic Republic institutions have been dissolved, replaced, or incapacitated.
Where can I track the Iran regime fall prediction market?
You can track the market on Polymarket and use PolySpotter to monitor smart money activity, including whale bets, sharp trader entries, and clustered wallet behavior around the event.