Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
11 signals across 1 market · $95,116 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Ukraine will recapture any Crimean territory by the resolution deadline, based on the ISW map criteria. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter tracking smart money activity across the event, including a recent signal where an 80% winner bought No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial trader adding No
A high-volume serial cross-market trader is adding to a large existing No position, with two other wallets also buying No around 90¢.
$6,828Score: 6.1 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market trader put $4.2k on No, a size equal to over half the market's 24h volume, in a long-dated geopolitical market.
$4,161Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 5.0 - 99% serial cross-market bettor
Surfaced because a highly successful serial cross-market wallet bought $3.2k of No, with the trade larger than recent market activity.
$3,233Wallet win rate: 99%Score: 5.0 - 81% serial cross-market winner
Surfacing because a highly proven serial cross-market trader with 81% wins across 621 resolved bets bought $4.3k of No on a geopolitical market.
$4,300Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - 82% serial cross-market bettor
Surfaced because this is a highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L taking a fresh No position.
$1,959Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial thesis bettor
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is buying No at 90¢ on a geopolitical market, a defensible follow signal despite the bet being on the favorite.
$4,187Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.0 - New whale buying No
A very new wallet placed a $53.5k No bet that dwarfed the market’s prior activity, suggesting strong conviction despite limited wallet history.
$2,825Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - New whale buying No
A very new wallet placed a $53.5k No bet that dwarfed the market’s prior activity, suggesting strong conviction despite limited wallet history.
$10,878Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - New whale buying No
A very new wallet placed a $53.5k No bet that dwarfed the market’s prior activity, suggesting strong conviction despite limited wallet history.
$53,523Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 2.9 - Profitable veteran buying NO
A profitable 302-bet wallet bought No during a 19.6x volume spike, though the trade is modest relative to this liquid market.
$1,396Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 1.8
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5d2b95…cb8c$67,225 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xd5ccdf…dea4$8,348 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x8597ca…daee$4,300 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0xd25b87…9f3d$3,233 · 1 market · 1 alert · 99% wins
- 0x21d0c1…ce91$1,959 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x99012d…6046$1,828 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x026036…0d88$1,396 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Ukraine recaptures Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance that Ukraine captures any qualifying Crimean territory by the deadline. This event hub tracks the Yes/No market and smart money activity around that outcome.
What does the market count as Ukraine recapturing Crimea?
The market resolves Yes if the ISW map shows any part of Crimea shaded blue by the resolution date. The black border around Crimea does not count as captured territory under the market rules.
What is smart money doing on this Ukraine-Crimea market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,828 in smart money activity across this event. The latest alert showed an 80% winner buying No, suggesting at least one strong trader was betting against Ukraine recapturing qualifying Crimean territory by the deadline.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The event is tied to whether Ukraine recaptures qualifying Crimean territory by December 31, 2026, with resolution based on the market’s stated ISW map criteria.