Part of: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,165.

Categories: close, Iran, ships, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Oil

Notable Trades

Large add-on amid sharp No breakout

A trader added a sizable No position in a thin market, accounting for over half of recent volume while No broke sharply above its prior price range.

  • The $1,004 No purchase represented 56.6% of reported 24-hour volume in this relatively thin market.
  • No moved 25.8% above its prior observed price range, suggesting strong recent directional conviction.
  • This was an add-on to an existing No position averaging 81¢, though the wallet's 50% win rate offers limited track-record support.

$1,161 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Large add-on amid sharp No breakout

A trader added a sizable No position in a thin market, accounting for over half of recent volume while No broke sharply above its prior price range.

  • The $1,004 No purchase represented 56.6% of reported 24-hour volume in this relatively thin market.
  • No moved 25.8% above its prior observed price range, suggesting strong recent directional conviction.
  • This was an add-on to an existing No position averaging 81¢, though the wallet's 50% win rate offers limited track-record support.

$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 45054334, $7,343 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xff06...2f60 Outcome 45054334, $1,737 (77% win rate)
  3. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 45054334, $1,708 (94% win rate)
  4. 0xa837...34ea Outcome 45054334, $1,350
  5. 0xbeb9...3870 Outcome 45054334, $1,267 (53% win rate)
  6. 0xfc95...0b9c Outcome 45054334, $1,000
  7. 0xbada...d874 Outcome 45054334, $554
  8. 0x0845...6b6f Outcome 45054334, $523 (70% win rate)
  9. 0x7a5f...e2b1 Outcome 45054334, $500 (50% win rate)
  10. 0xb17d...59ae Outcome 45054334, $500 (82% win rate)

Related Theses

Russia-Ukraine talks won’t happen

Covers 2 related markets

Iran blockade ends mid-September

Covers 5 related markets

WTI rises, but stays below $95

Covers 2 related markets

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?

Resolved0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?$2,165 tracked2 signalscloseIranshipsGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzOil

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
99¢
94¢
90¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?

25d ago

$1,161 on No at 86¢

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?

26d ago

$1,004 on No at 86¢

Related Theses