Part of: Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

This prediction market tracks whether Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung will be arrested or detained by law enforcement before 2027. It resolves based on whether a qualifying arrest, detention, or surrender to an arrest warrant occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Live odds reflect traders’ current expectations, while PolySpotter is tracking $2,484 in smart money activity, including recent No-side buying alerts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,352.

Categories: South Korea, World, Politics

Notable Trades

88% winner flips to Yes

Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved-bet win record is effectively buying Yes by selling No on Lee Jae-myung arrest risk.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved bets and is up about $3.0k lifetime.
  • They sold No at 85¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 15¢.
  • This looks like a shift after previously holding No, not just adding to the same position.

$2,484 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

94% winner buying No

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a political/legal market.

  • This bettor has won 32 of 34 resolved trades and is up about $2.1K lifetime.
  • They are buying No at 81¢ after previously trading this same side on the market.
  • Entry at 81¢ implies they see limited arrest risk before the 2026 deadline.

$1,554 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

86% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a politically significant market showing recent momentum.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $87.7k lifetime.
  • They are highly experienced across 153 events and nearly $2.0M in past volume.
  • They bought No at 81¢, fading the market’s recent move toward Yes.

$1,581 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

94% winner buying contrarian NO

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 94% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No against a major Yes price surge.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $1.4K lifetime.
  • They bought No after Yes jumped about 23 points in a day, taking the other side of the market move.
  • This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier No position, suggesting renewed conviction.

$1,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

94% winner buys dip

Sharp wallet override: a 94% winner with positive lifetime P&L is re-entering No after the market moved sharply toward Yes.

  • This bettor has won 31 of 33 resolved bets and is up $1,636 lifetime.
  • They are buying No at 77¢ after Yes jumped about 18 points in the past day.
  • The wallet previously traded No on this market and is now re-entering the same side.

$1,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

86% serial cross-market winner

Surfaced because a highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% record and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite a sharp market move toward Yes.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $87.7K lifetime.
  • They are a very active cross-market trader, with nearly $2.0M deployed across 206 markets.
  • They bought No at 78¢ while the market was surging the other way, suggesting a contrarian view with conviction.

$4,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

364x volume surge

A sudden 364x volume spike with a 30-point move in a plausible political/legal market makes this Yes flow worth watching despite no wallet track record.

  • A normally quiet political market saw 364x its usual volume.
  • Yes moved about 30 points in a day, matching this $5.6k buy direction.
  • The order book is thin, so a $5.6k entry is meaningful relative to $12k liquidity.

$5,575 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x44bb...c186 Yes, $205,150
  2. 0x098c...1c67 No, $45,465 (45% win rate)
  3. 0xe231...4e3e No, $43,062
  4. 0xe154...0b7f No, $13,467
  5. 0xaf39...3101 No, $11,892 (86% win rate)
  6. 0x4842...b7d4 No, $11,265
  7. 0x8e8c...6657 No, $10,876 (65% win rate)
  8. 0x5ecd...0787 No, $9,500 (40% win rate)
  9. 0x36e7...0b6b No, $6,626
  10. 0x60f7...050b No, $5,774

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Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

230dLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?$18,352 tracked7 signalsSouth KoreaWorldPolitics
Yes
17¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
95¢
81¢
67¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

1d ago

$2,484 on Yes at 15¢

15¢17¢2¢

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

2d ago

$1,554 on No at 81¢

81¢83¢2¢

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

2d ago

$1,581 on No at 81¢

81¢83¢2¢

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

2d ago

$1,128 on No at 72¢

72¢83¢11¢

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

2d ago

$1,350 on No at 77¢

77¢83¢6¢

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

2d ago

$4,680 on No at 78¢

78¢83¢5¢

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

2d ago

$5,575 on Yes at 50¢

50¢17¢33¢

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