Part of: Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
This prediction market tracks whether Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung will be arrested or detained by law enforcement before 2027. It resolves based on whether a qualifying arrest, detention, or surrender to an arrest warrant occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Live odds reflect traders’ current expectations, while PolySpotter is tracking $2,484 in smart money activity, including recent No-side buying alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,352.
Categories: South Korea, World, Politics
Notable Trades
88% winner flips to Yes
Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved-bet win record is effectively buying Yes by selling No on Lee Jae-myung arrest risk.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved bets and is up about $3.0k lifetime.
- They sold No at 85¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 15¢.
- This looks like a shift after previously holding No, not just adding to the same position.
$2,484 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
94% winner buying No
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a political/legal market.
- This bettor has won 32 of 34 resolved trades and is up about $2.1K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 81¢ after previously trading this same side on the market.
- Entry at 81¢ implies they see limited arrest risk before the 2026 deadline.
$1,554 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
86% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a politically significant market showing recent momentum.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $87.7k lifetime.
- They are highly experienced across 153 events and nearly $2.0M in past volume.
- They bought No at 81¢, fading the market’s recent move toward Yes.
$1,581 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
94% winner buying contrarian NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 94% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No against a major Yes price surge.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $1.4K lifetime.
- They bought No after Yes jumped about 23 points in a day, taking the other side of the market move.
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier No position, suggesting renewed conviction.
$1,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
94% winner buys dip
Sharp wallet override: a 94% winner with positive lifetime P&L is re-entering No after the market moved sharply toward Yes.
- This bettor has won 31 of 33 resolved bets and is up $1,636 lifetime.
- They are buying No at 77¢ after Yes jumped about 18 points in the past day.
- The wallet previously traded No on this market and is now re-entering the same side.
$1,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
86% serial cross-market winner
Surfaced because a highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% record and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite a sharp market move toward Yes.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $87.7K lifetime.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with nearly $2.0M deployed across 206 markets.
- They bought No at 78¢ while the market was surging the other way, suggesting a contrarian view with conviction.
$4,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
364x volume surge
A sudden 364x volume spike with a 30-point move in a plausible political/legal market makes this Yes flow worth watching despite no wallet track record.
- A normally quiet political market saw 364x its usual volume.
- Yes moved about 30 points in a day, matching this $5.6k buy direction.
- The order book is thin, so a $5.6k entry is meaningful relative to $12k liquidity.
$5,575 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x44bb...c186 — Yes, $205,150
- 0x098c...1c67 — No, $45,465 (45% win rate)
- 0xe231...4e3e — No, $43,062
- 0xe154...0b7f — No, $13,467
- 0xaf39...3101 — No, $11,892 (86% win rate)
- 0x4842...b7d4 — No, $11,265
- 0x8e8c...6657 — No, $10,876 (65% win rate)
- 0x5ecd...0787 — No, $9,500 (40% win rate)
- 0x36e7...0b6b — No, $6,626
- 0x60f7...050b — No, $5,774
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