Part of: FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,109.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, Republican Primary, Florida Primary, House Primary, August 18 Primaries, US Election

Notable Trades

94% win-rate bettor adds to Yes

A highly profitable sharp bettor with a 94% win rate added substantially to an illiquid Yes position despite the market currently pricing it lower.

This bettor has won 94% of 35 resolved positions and is up $34,425.
The $1,470 purchase represented 61% of 24-hour volume in a thin market with only $154 liquidity.
The wallet is scaling into an existing Yes position and has also positioned across a related market, signaling continued conviction.

$1,585 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

94% winner scaling into Yes

A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge added more Yes exposure at 49¢ in a thin market that has since risen sharply.

This bettor has won 33 of 35 resolved positions, earning $34,425 while beating entry odds by roughly 30 percentage points.
They added about $3,054 of Yes exposure at 49¢, increasing an existing $6,370 position rather than merely taking profits.
Yes has since surged to roughly 76%, while the market remains thin with only $183 liquidity and a wide spread.

$3,054 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

94% win-rate bettor adds to Yes

A highly profitable sharp bettor with a 94% win rate added substantially to an illiquid Yes position despite the market currently pricing it lower.

This bettor has won 94% of 35 resolved positions and is up $34,425.
The $1,470 purchase represented 61% of 24-hour volume in a thin market with only $154 liquidity.
The wallet is scaling into an existing Yes position and has also positioned across a related market, signaling continued conviction.

$1,470 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 14643651, $6,412
0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 14643651, $4,231 (73% win rate)
0xb477...673e — Outcome 14643651, $276
0x08ef...e466 — Outcome 14643651, $105
0x7a31...1164 — Outcome 14643651, $93
0xcdf5...e344 — Outcome 14643651, $44
0x510f...a43c — Outcome 14643651, $30
0x52eb...67ac — Outcome 14643651, $30 (79% win rate)
0x7009...390a — Outcome 13599412, $30
0x5a7f...6413 — Outcome 14643651, $28

Related Theses

Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

ResolvedFL-09 Republican Primary Winner$6,109 tracked3 signalsPoliticsElectionsPrimariesprimary electionsRepublican PrimaryFlorida PrimaryHouse PrimaryAugust 18 PrimariesUS Election

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Notable Trades