Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?
This market asks whether Anthropic will restore US customer access to Claude Fable 5, also known as Claude Mythos, or a confirmed equivalent model by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It follows Anthropic’s June 2026 suspension of the model after a reported US government directive. PolySpotter is tracking $1,163 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal tied to this market.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,533.
Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump
Notable Trades
New wallet event thesis
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made 10 flagged large bets totaling $18.4k.
- They are positioned across 4 related markets in the same event, totaling about $16k.
- Buying Yes at 73¢ signals confidence that restoration is more likely than the market’s current 70% price.
$1,163 on Yes
New wallet event thesis
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made 10 flagged large bets totaling $18.4k.
- They are positioned across 4 related markets in the same event, totaling about $16k.
- Buying Yes at 73¢ signals confidence that restoration is more likely than the market’s current 70% price.
$1,403 on Yes
New wallet event thesis
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made 10 flagged large bets totaling $18.4k.
- They are positioned across 4 related markets in the same event, totaling about $16k.
- Buying Yes at 73¢ signals confidence that restoration is more likely than the market’s current 70% price.
$1,443 on Yes
New wallet event thesis
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made 10 flagged large bets totaling $18.4k.
- They are positioned across 4 related markets in the same event, totaling about $16k.
- Buying Yes at 73¢ signals confidence that restoration is more likely than the market’s current 70% price.
$1,460 on Yes
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% record bought No on a thin, wide-spread AI policy market while positioning across related markets.
- This bettor has won 71% of 347 resolved trades and is up $46K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 52 events and 71 markets.
- The $3.1K No buy is large for this thin market, with only $8.2K traded in the last 24 hours.
$3,063 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — No, $6,842 (71% win rate)
- 0xd5b9...e44e — No, $4,835 (59% win rate)
- 0x2c39...56dc — Yes, $4,133 (55% win rate)
- 0x7532...c6fc — Yes, $3,500 (60% win rate)
- 0xd286...2322 — Yes, $2,466
- 0x7365...64da — Yes, $2,144 (52% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — No, $1,461 (96% win rate)
- 0x876b...1703 — Yes, $1,191
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $1,172 (69% win rate)
- 0x1dd1...a156 — No, $1,129 (53% win rate)
Related Theses
Mojtaba remains out of sight
Covers 3 related markets
